A Fortnight Down Under January 17, 2010
Posted by Neil in : Uncategorized , trackback 
The shortest offseason in sports is over, and as the calendar turns to a new decade the tennis world is set to christen 2010 by battling for the next two weeks in Melbourne. Even though it seems like Nikolay Davydenko just held up the trophy at the O2 in London, the first Grand Slam of the year commences on Monday. While most around the game certainly feel that a longer offseason would benefit the quality of play and the longevity of careers, the players must gear up for two steamy weeks Down Under.
The Australian Open is the most difficult Grand Slam to prognosticate. While the players have had only two months to recuperate from the grind of 2009, some players have used that brief respite to train rigorously in an attempt to make their mark at the Happy Slam, while others have used this time to get away from the game to make sure their body holds up for another 10+ month season. While I firmly believe that the tennis calendar must be shortened for the sake of having the best tennis players in the world actually play (and try) their best at all times, I will get off the soap box and try to predict the always unpredictable fortnight ahead in Australia.
As we left 2009, we were left with many impressions of the landscape at the top of the men’s game. Robin Soderling has improved a lot. He was able to break into the top 10 largely based on his impressive win over Rafa at the French and stay there. This was capped by a great performance at the year end event in London and has seemingly carried into 2010 where he rang in the new year with an exhibition win over Federer (the first time he has ever beaten him) in Abu Dhabi.
In addition, Nikolay Davydenko has been the best player on Tour since November. He won the year end title and then started this year off by taking home the title in Doha dispatching of Federer and Nadal. While Soderling and Davydenko are certainly guys to watch for Down Under and throughout the year, I don’t believe they are credible title contenders for the year’s first major. Soderling can hit anyone off the court and is capable of beating anybody on any surface (see his win over Nadal at the French last year), however the big hitting Swede still has movement issues, and I don’t believe he will ever hold up over seven best of 5 matches. Then again, this is the Aussie and Thomas Johansson has his name on the trophy. Similarly, I think Davydenko will wear down over the course of two weeks and while he is able to beat the Nadal’s of the world in best of 3 matches, I don’t see him penetrating past the semis and winning a Grand Slam title during his career.
I have gotten to this point without mentioning the greatest player of all time (the GOAT), #1 player, and the man who got to each of the Slam finals last year. While I maintain that Federer’s dominance over the field continues to shrink, he still has to be the favorite to win this title. While stories like Davydenko and Soderling are nice, when it is time to pick the champion, the banter starts and basically ends with Federer and Nadal in my book. While Federer should be the betting favorite to take the title, I really like how Nadal has prepared for this event. He did not use the two months since London as an offseason. He used the vast majority of it to gear up to defend his title in Melbourne. He will take his break after this event. He played superb in taking home the exhibition title over Soderling in Abu Dhabi and while he suffered a road bump to Davydenko in Doha, he is poised to challenge for a Grand Slam title for the first time since this event last year.
While Roger and Rafa are the favorites to meet in the final in two Sundays, the usual cast of suspects is ready to challenge them. Djokovic had a solid fall indoors, but I always question his mental toughness and physical stability in Melbourne. While he won his only Grand Slam title in Australia a few short years ago, the memory of his match with Roddick in last year’s quarterfinal still burns bright. He is always capable of winning the title, but I would seriously question his chances.
Juan Martin Del Potro was the last man to hold a Grand Slam trophy aloft as he officially arrived near the top of the men’s game with his incredibly impressive weekend in New York where he demolished Nadal and humanized Federer. However, he has largely been ravaged by injury since and has not been able to post good results. He is hampered by ailments going into this event and that coupled with a difficult early draw could mean an early exit for the lanky Argentine. I don’t expect a deep run for him here, but he certainly will be a force at the Slams for the rest of the year and well beyond.
That leaves the two mercurial Andy’s. Murray has posted strange results for the past year. I thought he was poised to break through Down Under last year, but was knocked out by Verdasco. He then fell to Gonzo at the French in the quarters. He was poised to reach the finals at Wimbledon, but was outclasssed by Roddick. He then got demolished by Cilic in New York. Murray was a clear #3 for much of the past year plus, but has been passed by Djokovic and Del Potro. I expect a big 2010 from him, but would be surprised if he was able to win his first Grand Slam title this month.
Andy Roddick is still relevant near the top of the men’s game. He was tantalizingly close to winning that coveted 2nd major of his career, but blew the 2nd set tiebreaker and fell to Federer in an epic 5 set Wimbledon final. Roddick was hampered throughout the fall with a knee injury. However, that may have been a good thing for him. While others battled for weeks during the indoor season, Roddick actually had a true offseason to re-group, decompress, and regain his mental and physical strength for 2010. He held up well in taking home the title in Brisbane, however that was against a watered down field. I profess that America’s Andy only has 9-12 more chances to win a second Grand Slam title. He has the next 3 or 4 years at the Australian, Wimbledon, and the US Open (as he will never be relevant in Paris). This event gives him a decent puncher’s chance. He is on the opposite side of the draw from Federer. He got the best of all potential quarterfinal opponents in Delpo (whom I don’t think will make the quarters), and is rested and ready unlike many of his competitors who battled all season.
Here is my breakdown for this year’s fortnight Down Under:
1st Quarter:
This quarter is particularly brutal. It contains the best player of all time (Federer), the best player in the world since November (Davydenko), and the most dangerous unseeded player (Baghdatis). Sprinkle in last year’s semifinalist Down Under Fernando Verdasco, and you have a truly tasty quarter.
Federer is currently in the midst of the greatest streak in sports history in my opinion. He has reached an astounding 22 consecutive Grand Slam semis. His last loss before the semis was in the 2004 French Open. The previous record for consecutive semis was 10 by Ivan Lendl. However, while Roger is 110-0 in Grand Slam matches before the semis since that ‘04 French, there is not a guarantee that he will extend his streak to 23.
Federer faces about as difficult a first round opponent as a top seed could draw. He takes on Russian Igor Andreev who is usually seeded in the twenties in a Grand Slam, and has pushed Federer to the brink in a major before. The two battled over five scintillating sets at Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York a few years ago before Federer was able to subdue the hard-hitting Russian. Andreev plays with pure brut force from the backcourt and possesses one of the biggest forehands in the game. If he plays well against Roger and the Swiss Maestro is not at the top of his game, then a shocking first round ouster is a possibility. However, Andreev has never been consistent enough to break into the top 10 and will not be able to keep the ball in the court enough to beat Roger in a best of 5, and thus I like Federer to escape into Round 2 in four.
Federer’s path after Andreev looks clear until the 4th round. He may face a small quiz from Romania’s Victor Hanescu in Round 2, but he should breeze into the second week. In the Round of 16 he will face either Baghdatis or #22 seed Lleyton Hewitt. Those two will meet in a delicious third round encounter that will hopefully be a reprisal of their all-night battle on Rod Laver Arena a few years ago. They will surely be scheduled in the night session again, and I like these two to battle the distance. Baghdatis played superb in taking home the title in Sydney with wins over Mardy Fish and cocaine-kisser Richard Gasquet (another dangerous floater). I like the Cypriot to show some of the form that got him to the Oz final a few years ago and defeat David Ferrer in Round 2 and Hewitt in the 3rd round. However, in a rematch of the 2006 Aussie final, Federer will once again prove superior in a 4 set triumph to move on to the quarters.
His opponent there will be either #9 seed Fernando Verdasco or #7 seed Nikolay Davydenko. Verdasco (much like Soderling) took a huge step forward in 2009. It all started with a stirring run Down Under where he defeated Andy Murray and pushed Rafa Nadal to the brink in a riveting 5 set semifinal encounter. Verdasco disappointed in some of the other Slams the rest of the season (except a quarterfinal appearance in NY). I like the smooth Spaniard to move past big serving lefty Carsten Ball, Israel’s Dudi Sela, and then countrymen and #23 seed Juan Carlos Ferrero to reach the 4th Round. There he will face Davydenko in a war of attrition.
Davydenko has put up the best results on Tour since November. He held the biggest trophy of his career aloft in winning the season ending title in London. He then started 2010 by downing a super field in Doha. However, I always question Nikolay’s mental makeup and ability to move deep into Slams. His consistency and movement will push him into the second week, but I have a difficult time envisioning him breaking through to the semis. Especially, with this draw. I like him to dispatch German qualifier Dieter Kindlmann, Carlos Moya, and #30 seed Juan Monaco (or dangerous unseeded players Ernestis Gulbis or Michael Llodra) to reach the 4th round, however in that round he will be stopped by Verdasco in a 5 set battle that could last well over four hours.
Regardless of whether the opponent is Verdasco or Davydenko, I like Roger to march to his 23rd consecutive Grand Slam semifinal. The world #1 is just too consistently good on this surface to be beaten in a best of 5 match at this point by someone not named Nadal.
2nd Quarter:
While the 1st quarter of the draw is the strongest in my opinion, the 2nd quarter is by far the weakest. It is headlined by #3 seed Novak Djokovic. The Serb played well in the indoor season and with a fairly pedestrian early draw does have the luxury of working his way into the event without the prospect of an early exit. He will breeze through the first 3 rounds and then take on either #20 seed Mikhail Youzhny, Richard Gasquet, or #16 Tommy Robredo in the 4th Round.
Youzhny and Gasquet meet in one of the most enticing first round encounters in Melbourne. The uber-talented Frenchman has seemingly put his controversial 2009 in the rear view mirror (although I am sure he will not be going to any South Beach nightclubs when TMS Miami rolls around). After the most noted kiss in recent tennis history, Gasquet was physically absent or mentally missing for virtually the entire season. He has regrouped as evidenced by his inspired play in reaching the final of Syndey before succumbing to Baghdatis. I like Gasquet to take out Youzhny in four, and then dispatch Robredo in five in the 3rd round.
Djokovic and Gasquet will meet in a wonderful shot making 4th round encounter. While Gasquet may have the leg up as far as flair, Djokovic will be too solid and will move on in four sets. In the quarters, he will take on #8 seed Robin Soderling. The Swede seems to be everyone’s pick to lose early Down Under based on his less then exemplary results he has posted in the Happy Slam. However, this is a new Soderling who has worked hard to cement himself in the top eight of the world and has no designs on leaving anytime soon. He has a favorable draw and will mow through unseeded Benjamin Becker or #26 seed Nicholas Almagro in Round 3, before taking out #18 Tommy Haas or #10 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Round 4. Soderling is playing too well to have yet another disappointment Down Under. He loves a target and will get one if he faces the aggressive Frenchman Tsonga.
This quarter will hold form with a quarterfinal battle between #8 Soderling and #3 Djokovic. While Soderling is certainly capable of beating the humorous Serb, the Swede’s lack of movement will finally catch up to him in this encounter. While his swiftness around the court has certainly improved in the last year, it is still a weakness for the big swinging Swede, and I like Novak to take advantage of this in four long sets.
However, that will be where the event ends for Novak. He seems to always run into Federer in the semis of the hard court Slams. He was able to dethrone Roger in the semis in Melbourne a few years ago, however that was a depleted Federer and that history will not repeat itself in this fortnight. I like Federer to defeat Djokovic in four and move on to yet another Grand Slam final.
3rd Quarter:
If Andy Roddick made the draw himself, this is exactly the scenario he would have laid out. Roddick is on the other side of the draw from Federer, and was dropped into the quarter with the top four seed who has the most questions going into the event (#4 seed Juan Martin Del Potro). While there is no guarantee that America’s Andy will take advantage of this fortunate draw and reach the semis, his title in Brisbane should at least be encouraging to his fans. He must be wary of a couple of big hitters (see Querrey in Round 3 and Berdych or Gonzalez in Round 4), however if he serves well he should move through this quarter.
I like Roddick to dismiss the young Dutch Thiemo de Bakker, Teimuraz Gabashvili, and tricky Spanish lefty Feliciano Lopez to move onto the Round of 16. Lopez will already have dispatched #25 seeded American Sam Querrey, who is thankfully back on Tour after a scary locker room incident last fall that required a major arm surgery. This has seemingly stymied Querrey’s momentum toward the top 15 of the game. He was poised to break through after an excellent summer hard court season (including a first victory over Roddick in Cincy), however he was unable to play the TMS events in the fall due to this injury and has lost both of his matches in the Aussie warm-up events.
Berdych and Gonzo will battle in a huge-hitting 3rd round encounter for the right to face Roddick. I like Berdych to beat the Chilean in five. Roddick will then dispatch the talented Czech in four tight sets to move onto the quarters.
In the quarters, Roddick will take on #14 seed Marin Cilic. The Croat is ready to continue his move towards the top five in 2010. I think he will continue to show the brilliant form that saw him absolutely undress Andy Murray at the US Open last year, and will thoroughly defeat the Favre-esqe Frenchman Fabrice Santoro in Round 1, Aussie prodigy Bernard Tomic in Round 2, and Swiss #2 Stan Wawrinka in Round 3. In the Round of 16, he will face either American James Blake or #4 seed Juan Martin Del Potro.
James Blake is not a relevant player in the Slams anymore, however he may be able to have one more week in the sun Down Under. He faces a potentially maddening test from Frenchman Arnaud Clement in Round 1 in a matchup of players who have become shells of their former selves. He should get past that and be able to battle Del Potro. I would normally give the US Open champion a huge edge in this matchup, but I do not have a good feeling about the Argentine in this event. He could easily lose to Blake in Round 2. If he does not, he will lose to Cilic in a battle of skyscrapers.
Roddick and Cilic will provide for a wonderful 5 set quarterfinal encounter. A year from now I would probably favor Cilic, however the American will outcage the still precocious Croat. Roddick only has about a dozen Grand Slams left in his career in which he can be a relevant factor. He will not pass on this opportunity and will move on to the semis.
4th Quarter:
While the 1st quarter may be the deepest, this quarter may contain the most difficult landmine of seeds to wade through. #5 seed Andy Murray and #2 seed and defending champion Rafa Nadal headline the quarter, however there are dangerous big hitters lurking in #33 seed John Isner, Ivo Karlovic, and Sydney semifinalist Mardy Fish. Add all-court players in #12 seed Gael Monfils and #13 seed Radek Stepanek and you have a truly difficult quarter.
Murray will breeze past qualifying South African Kevin Anderson, Frenchman Marc Gicquel, and Florent Serra or #28 seed Jurgen Melzer to reach the 4th round. Once there, he will take on flashy Frenchman Gael Monfils. The athletic Monfils will have waltzed through his first two rounds before surviving a tricky 3rd round over either big serving American #33 seed John Isner (who just won in Auckland) or the always solid Italian Andreas Seppi.
Monfils and Murray will battle in the 4th round match I am most looking forward to. These two are maybe the most athletic players on Tour (along with Roger and Rafa), and will provide many points that will be remembered for some time. I like the way Monfils finished off 2009 better then how the Scot did, and as such I am giving him the edge in a 5 set affair.
Rafael Nadal is playing his best tennis since last year when he won the title in Melbourne. He seems to be healthy and played well in Abu Dhabi and decent in Doha to prepare for this event. He has been targeting this title for the last few months. Despite a fairly difficult draw, he will move past #27 seeded German Phillip Kohlschreiber in Round 3 and surprise Round of 16 opponent Mardy Fish. The American will have defeated #24 seeded Croat Ivan Ljubicic in Round 2 and then either #13 seed Radek Stepanek or Ivo Karlovic (these two play in an absolutely delicious serve and volley 1st round matchup) in Round 3.
Fish may take a set from Rafa in Round 4, but no more. Mardy’s backhand seemingly has improved over the brief offseason, which is impressive considering that was already his biggest weapon. However, his forehand still breaks down in the biggest moments. Marcos Baghdatis continually broke down that wing during their riveting 3 set Sydney semi. Fish’s lovely wife Stacy Gardner will get to enjoy one more full week Down Under, but then Nadal will destroy Fish in straight sets as Nadal will punish Mardy’s forehand.
Nadal will then face Monfils in another athletic encounter. Nadal wore Monfils down in a US Open night match in September, and is still way too consistent for the flashy Frenhman. I like Nadal to dispose of him in a 4 set quarterfinal.
Nadal and Roddick will then meet in what should be a tight semifinal. While they have met in the Davis Cup, these two have yet to meet late in a Grand Slam event. Their most meaningful matchup to date will be a close affair, however unless Roddick serves the match of his life, Rafa is too consistent from the baseline. Roddick will sneak out a tiebreaker, but Rafa will move on in 4.
Championship Rematch:
The final will be a reprise of last year’s emotional changing of the guard Down Under. Federer was truly humanized for the first time in his career, as Rafa broke Fed’s spirits in the 5th set and Federer went away quietly and sobbing into the Aussie night. Federer will not hand this match away like he did last year. However, Rafa has geared up for this event and will not be denied. I like this one to go the distance once again, however Nadal breaks Federer late in the 5th set and takes home his second consecutive title Down Under.
Comments»
Great, detailed analysis in this piece, Co-Host. Kudos to you for breaking this draw down with such thought and foresight. It is tough for me to dispute your picks, without having put together the amount of thought that you have in taking the Aussie Open field apart. I will however say that Federer will prevail in the final against Nadal. Perhaps these are my pro-Swiss Maestro leanings coming to a forefront, as Nadal will certainly be prepared and rested heading into Melbourne. However, I will stick to my guns on this one and proclaim Federer the winner of this year’s first Slam.
i got del porto all the way goodbye fed and nadel the real champion will stand up
I think, anything can happen in Australia. All players are so good. But, they have theirs days: better and worse. And this is the beauty of sport: nothing is for sure. 2 plus 2 doesn’t have be 4. It can be 3 or maybee 7. Who knows. I wish good luck to all of the tennis stars and I’d like to see Roger again in the final.
By the way, new decade of this century starts in 2011 not in 2010.
Del Potro all the way ,is a phenomenal player!
hi mr Federer i am one of your best fans i live in canada ihope you can win this one
Mr. Federer you are the best. congratulations……God bless you¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡from mexico city.