NFL Columbus Day Checkpoint October 12, 2009
Posted by Neil in : Uncategorized , trackback 
All professional team sports have a date on which you can start to take stock of how a season is developing and form some concrete opinions on teams. MLB has Memorial Day, the NBA has Christmas, and I think the NFL has Columbus Day. Some NFL pundits would claim that you may need to wait until Halloween or even Thanksgiving, however I think we have learned most of what we need to know about all NFL teams by now. Here are my thoughts about how this NFL season is starting to shape up:
The most striking thing to me about this NFL season besides the fact that I am still rattled that the NFL has not adopted a college overtime format, is the clear line of demarcation between the Haves and Have Nots in the league. We have all heard about the NFL being the best professional league in North American sports because the league has great parity. Any team can make the quick turnaround in a year or two from the outhouse to the penthouse. While the opportunity exists for that to occur, I profess that this concept is more myth then fact. I would argue that this season is a preeminent example indicating that there is a true hierarchy in the NFL. We have some great franchises and some terrible ones. The gap between them is very large. Examples from Week 5 include the Giants 44-7 mutilation of the Raiders, the Eagles thrashing of the winless Bucs, and the Colts road demolition over the Titans. I think NFL teams can be divided into four categories: Blue Bloods, Nouveau Riche, Drifters, and Pond Scum.
Blue Bloods (historically great over the last decade and are well run from the top down): Giants, Colts, Eagles, Steelers, Patriots. These five teams in my opinion have separated themselves from the rest of the NFL. In large part, they are defined by stability at the QB position as well as great owners and head coaches. There are occasional seasons where one of them may miss the postseason due to an injury (see last year’s Patriots), however these teams are consistently vying for division titles and jockying for home field advantage to try and position themselves for Vince Lombardi trophies. The Eagles are the only team of the five not to win a Super Bowl in the last decade, but they deserve inclusion on this list due to their superb ownership and coaching as well as great recent drafts which have kept them near the top of the NFC.
Just look at where these five teams sit this season. The Giants and Colts are undefeated and have Mannings playing at the top of their games. The Eagles have one loss and have drafted brillantly at the skill positions the last two seasons getting DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and LeSean McCoy to complement Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and the emerging Brent Celek. The Steelers and Patriots both are 3-2, but both have amazing leadership in their front office and stability at QB and in their coaching ranks. The Eagles may be the most controversial inclusion in this group, but their consistency over the last decade gives them the nod. The other four in the group of Blue Bloods may look at the Eagles and scoff sometimes (see signing Michael Vick and the T.O. saga a few years ago) by their sometimes strange decision-making, but all four fear the Eagles and respect them as one of the elite franchises in the league.
Nouveau Riche: These franchises aspire to be one of the Blue Bloods. Jets, Cardinals, Niners, Broncos, Chargers, Vikings, Ravens, Bengals, Falcons, and Saints. These are 10 franchises that are on their way to the top of the NFL right now, but have some historical flaws that invite skepticism over whether their stay at the top will continue. These are talented teams that are capable of winning the Super Bowl this season (or in the next 2-3 years), but have some warts (or at least organizational flaws) that keep them from the consistency and respect that define the Blue Bloods.
Three of these teams are unbeaten. The Saints have the most explosive offense in the NFL. Drew Brees may be the best QB in the league (although I would rather have Peyton Manning right now). He has assorted nuclear weaponry with Pierre Thomas, Reginald Bush, Mike Bell, Jeremy Shockey, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, and Devery Henderson. The defense has played inspired in their 4-0 start. However, is this start a mirage? A few years ago this team almost went to the Super Bowl losing a close NFC Championship game in Chicago. They completely disappeared from relevancy last season. Does anyone really trust this defense to perform in the playoffs? They may destroy the Giants this Sunday in a battle of unbeatens (I doubt they will), but even if they do nobody will truly believe that they can repeat that performance in January.
The Broncos are the most shaky 5-0 team in recent memory. They were team turmoil just two months ago. Kyle Orton was being booed off the field in preseason games and Brandon Marshall wanted out of town. The Broncos got a miracle TD to beat the Bengals in Week 1 (my ears are still ringing from Gus Johnson’s call) and have lived a charmed existence ever since. They followed that win with victories over Pond Scum teams Oakland and Cleveland before getting home victories over a Drifter (Dallas) and the Patriots. While I am impressed that little Joshy McDaniels has 5 wins to bring home to Mommy from his first month in school with the Big Boys, I remain a skeptic about this team. I don’t think McDaniels is a great coach and I don’t think Kyle Orton will continue to play this well. They are relying too much on their defense and winning close games. I think the Broncos will be lucky to finish 10-6 and make the playoffs.
The Vikings are a very legitimate undefeated team and certainly will contend for the NFC title. They were actually a team that I almost put in the Blue Blood category. However, their inability to win playoff games over the past decade, as well as the fact that Brett Favre is just a one or two year stopgap answer at QB precludes them from joining the truly elite. However, this team has all it needs to win the Super Bowl. As a New York Giants fan, I worry about this team more then any other one being able to keep the Giants out of the Super Bowl this year. They have a tremendous defense led by Jared Allen, who I feel is the most dominating defensive presence in the game today. Add Pat and Kevin Williams, and they have the best defensive line in the game. They also have the best running back in the league in AP, as well as an emerging playmaker in Percy Harvin. If Brett Favre stays healthy and doesn’t make too many mistakes, I have a hard time imaging this team doing anything less then getting to the NFC Championship game. However, a year or two from now once Favre actually retires, they will return to being a team in limbo.
The Chargers, Ravens, and Falcons are all very similar to me. These are all teams that are capable of winning the title this year, but are franchises that have major questions. I have little respect for Norv Turner as a head coach. San Diego is a sexy team (especially when they wear their powder blue uniforms) with Rivers, Gates, and statuesque WR’s like Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers, and Malcolm Floyd. I think the “Lightning Bug” Darren Sproles is great. I do question whether we will ever see a truly healthy LT again. Most of all I question Norv Turner as a head coach. This team has all the ingredients to be a 5 star restaurant, but only has a sous-chef designing the menu and cooking the meal.
The Falcons and Ravens will always be grouped together because they are captained by second year QB’s. I think the world of Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, but have doubts that either is ready to hold up a Vince Lombardi trophy. I think if you mixed elements of these teams then you would have a surefire contender, but alone they are destined for decency. If you put the Falcons offense (Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez) with the Ravens D then you likely have a Super Bowl champion. However, I think the Ravens offense and the Falcons defense will keep these teams from playing in late January.
The Jets, Cardinals, Niners, and Bengals round out this group. I like what I am seeing from all of them, yet trust none of them. The Jets have the most long-term sustainability of this quartet. With Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez, along with a great defense, the Jets are the Ravens of last year with a little more offensive weaponry with guys like Leon Washington, Jerricho Cotchery, and the recent addition of Braylon Edwards. This team could be bound for the AFC Championship Game or beyond this season, and should be contenders for the next decade. However, we all must remember that this is the Jets and something always goes wrong to throw this franchise off track just when they seem headed for the Blue Bloods door.
I think the Niners actually have the next best chance out of these four to be a great team for the next decade. Mike Singletary has all the makings of a great coach and they have a great running back in Frank Gore. However, I have serious questions about their ownership group, and they do not have a franchise QB. If they could get a QB, then this team will contend for the next decade.
The Cardinals have the best resume of this group (having almost won the Super Bowl last year) and the best short term prospects (along with the Jets). They have all the pieces (especially on offense) to repeat their performance of last year. However, I don’t trust this franchise to sustain their success after this brief run. The Bidwells are penny pinchers and once Warner retires (in the next year or two), I envision a mass exodus including Fitzgerald and Boldin. For now, the Cardinals are still one of the cool kids of the NFL, but within 3 years they will likely sit with the outcasts.
I can’t believe the Bengals scrapped their way back into the Nouveau Riche category where they sat a few years ago after winning the AFC North. They have had a disastrous last few seasons, but are now atop the AFC North at 4-1. Chad Johnson (I refuse to call him Ochocinco) and Cedric Benson are playing great, and most importantly Carson Palmer is back to his form of a few years ago. Marvin Lewis has saved his job. This team will be a contender this year, but like the Cardinals, I don’t trust that this franchise can sustain success.
Drifters: Cowboys, Dolphins, Seahawks, Bears, Packers, Panthers, Texans, Jaguars and Titans. This group of nine is in limbo right now. Three of them are very proud former Blue Bloods (Cowboys, Bears, and Packers) that have a lot of talent but problems in management. Another subset (Dolphins, Seahawks, Panthers, Jaguars, and Titans) seem to be traveling around with no direction. The Texans want to join the Nouveau Riche but just are not quite there and are quickly joining their AFC South brethren (Jags and Titans) as respectable teams that end up as fodder for the Colts.
The first subset to examine is the former Blue Bloods who are now drifting into the NFL abyss. The Cowboys, Bears, and Packers are all talented teams that with a few breaks could make the postseason and win a few games once there. However, they all have major issues and seem to be drifting around endlessly with no direction. The Cowboys have the talent to win the NFC East. However, Jerry Jones is about 5-10 years away from reaching the senility that Al Davis currently is afflicted with. They have no stability at the three most important positions of an NFL franchise: Owner (Jones is there, but is he really all there), Head Coach, and QB. Lets play word association. Jerry Jones = cosmetic surgery or delusions of grandeur; Wade Phillips = Proud Papa, Norv Turner or less, Assistant Coach; Tony Romo = celebrity, dating blondes, no playoff wins. As long as Wade Phillips coaches this team they have no chance at winning a Super Bowl. Also, while Tony Romo is talented, he does not have the intangibles to be a Super Bowl winning QB. He is simply not clutch. I used to call him Mr. September and October, but he isn’t even playing well now. Why do people think he is so good? Just because he was given the keys to the car (by Jerry Jones of all people) doesn’t mean that he knows how to drive it. As Bill Parcells used to say, put those annointing oils away.
The Packers are also floating around with little direction. They have a solid QB in Aaron Rodgers and a solid nucleus of offensive skill players in Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings, and Donald Driver. However, they too are afflicted with the same problem as Dallas and San Diego. Mike McCarthy is an assistant coach who is out of place. Also, their offensive and defensive lines are subpar and they will forever have a Brett Favre complex as long as #4 plays (especially in the same division).
The Bears are who we thought they were. Thanks Denny Green. Honestly though, I don’t think anyone knows who the Bears really are. A few years ago their success was predicated on a strong defense led by Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. Now, their defense is okay, but not great. They have a couple of playmakers in Matt Forte and Devin Hester, but are unspectacular as a whole. Jay Cutler is an exciting QB, but without great weapons he is a turnonver waiting to happen. This team is 3-1, but I don’t feel that anyone (including them) has a true sense of where this team is going.
The Dolphins, Seahawks, Panthers, Jaguars, and Titans form the mantle (this is your geological education for the day) of the NFL. All of these teams share many traits. They all have some unique shade of blue as a staple on their uniforms. They all are capabale of beating anyone on a given Sunday. They are all capable of losing to anyone on a given Sunday. They are the worst teams to bet for or against because they change from week to week and season to season. In-Season example: Jags destroy Titans and then go to Seattle and get shutout and lose by 40. Season to Season Example: In 2008, Dolphins win AFC East, Panthers win NFC South, and Titans win AFC South with a 13-3 record, and the three can barely win a game this year.
All of these teams are plagued by constant turnover and change. The Blue Bloods have taught us that to be one of the elite you need the following Trifecta: Stability in ownership, head coach, and QB. These 5 teams have failed to hit the Trifecta. The Dolphins have no QB. Chad Pennington is a dinker and dunker and is now hurt. Similarly, the Panthers cannot go much longer with Jake Delhomme as their franchise QB. He threw away their playoff game last year, and is one of the worst QB’s in the league last year. The Titans have solid ownership and a rock of a head coach in Jeff Fisher, but missed on their franchise QB when they picked Vince Young. If they would have looked across town in Nashville and picked Jay Cutler (at Vanderbilt), this team would be 3-2 this year and would be contending with the Colts for the next decade in the AFC South.
The Seahawks and Jaguars are two of the biggest drifters in the league. I don’t even know where to pinpoint their troubles. Once every couple of years, these teams compete for Super Bowl births. The Seahawks had it rolling for a short time when Holmgren, Hasselbeck, and Shaun Alexander were clicking. The Jaguars should be a good team, but are so inconsistent. You have no idea what you are going to get from these teams from one week to the next. If the Seahawks play like they did yesterday in destroying the Jaguars, they could win a woeful NFC West. Then, they perform like they did against the Niners in Week 2.
Pond Scum: Redskins, Bills, Rams, Chiefs, Raiders, Lions, Browns, and Bucs. These eight teams are fodder for the rest of the league (especially the Blue Bloods and Nouveau Riche). The Redskins and Raiders are former Blue Bloods from the 70’s and early 80’s (Raiders) and 80’s and early 90’s (Redskins). The Rams and Chiefs are nomads from the Show-Me State. The Lions and Browns are the two worst franchises in NFL history in my opinion. The Bills and Bucs are usually in the Drifter category, but are so bad this year that they fell into the Pond Scum.
Lets begin with the Raiders and Redskins. These two teams deserve essays detailing their futility. Memo to both: Joe Gibbs and John Madden aren’t walking through the door. These former Blue Bloods are plagued by the worst thing that can happen to a franchise. Incompetant ownership. Al Davis was once a great owner, but is now a senile joke. Lets look at the Raiders philosophy. The vertical passing game. This ain’t the 70’s anymore Crypt Keeper. This philosophy has led to the following recent draft picks: JaMarcus Russell, Darrius Heyward-Bey, must I go on. The Raiders would be lucky to have Norv Turner, Wade Phillips, or Mike McCarthy as their head coach. At least these guys are capable coordinators. Instead they have the worst head coach in NFL history in Tom Cable. He may be qualified to coach an NFL offensive line. He has proven incapable of being the head coach of a college team (Idaho) or a NFL team. He also might get arrested and go to jail for breaking the jaw of an assistant. Yet, he still has a job. Pick up the soap Tom, Al just dropped it in front of you again.
The Redskins problems start and end with their owner as well. While Daniel Snyder is far from senile, he has the same delusions of grandeur as Jerry Jones with half the football intelligence. He thinks that you can win in the NFL with an all-star cast. He tries to put together a fantasy football roster by spending the most money. Yet, he has Jason Campbell as his QB and Jim Zorn as a head coach. Neither the Raiders nor the Redskins can even hire credible head coaches at this point. None are willing to coach for them. Until the league takes control of these teams away from Davis and Snyder, these two former proud Blue Bloods will remain jokes.
The Show-Me State shows us nothing when it comes to football. These two teams are just lost. If they were a little better they would be Drifters, but they are far from any respectability. They both have first year head coaches that are probably career coordinators, and have former great running backs (Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson) who have enough miles on their odometers that their teams should have traded them in as part of Obama’s Cash for Clunkers program. These teams have no stability at head coach and QB. The Chiefs are slightily better off then the Rams. At least, Rush Limbaugh doesn’t want to buy them.
The Bills and the Bucs are in a class of their own. These teams are usually Drifters and sometimes even hop into the Nouveau Riche category. However, after their perfomances through Week 5 this year, they need to start from scratch. The Bills-Browns game yesterday was one of the worst games in NFL history. While I like Trent Edwards as a person, he is not the QB of the future there. That T.O. signing has worked great so far. Get your popcorn ready for his antics when they are 3-13. The Bucs have no idea what they are doing at QB. They eventually want Josh Freeman to be their guy. I am not convinced that either he or Raheem Morris are capable of getting the job done.
I leave the worst for last. The Browns and Lions are the two worst franchises in history (at least since I have followed the NFL). At least the Browns have some history with Jim Brown and Bernie Kosar. Now, I think besides the Raiders they are the team that is lost more then all. Why is Eric Mangini an NFL head coach? Why did you draft Brady Quinn? I wouldn’t be surprised if this team fired Eric Mangini after their 3-13 season and then hired Charlie Weis as the savior to turn around Brady Quinn. That would be something the Browns would do.
The Lions are equally inept. Matt Millen set this franchise back ten years. However, I am not sure that they had that far back to move. The Ford family has no idea what they are doing. Matthew Stafford may end up being a decent QB, but they missed out on Mark Sanchez. They took years worth of 1st round WR busts and only landed on Calvin Johnson who is not playing that well anyway since he has no one around him. The Lions and Browns may have decades of futility ahead of them.
In sum, the Blue Bloods have stability in ownership, at head coach, and at QB. If you haven’t hit the NFL Trifecta, then you are destined for mediocrity. If you don’t at least have the ownership part down, then you will likely fail at head coach and QB and are destined to be labeled Pond Scum.
Comments»
Very well thought out piece, Co-Host. Incredible analysis in categorizing teams the way you did. At first read, the only team which I might disagree with you about is the Bears. To me, they have looked more than decent (despite key losses on defense), and Jay Cutler has shown the ability to lead his team back to victory in critical moments, thus far. Tonight’s match-up against the Falcons will certainly tell us quite a bit more about the squad formerly coached by Iron Mike Ditka.
Your point about stability at the key components couldn’t be more right on. The big pieces at the top need to be in place, in order to acquire a good run. One team which illustrates the pieces being now in place more than ever–and might well turn them into a Blue Blood–are the Falcons. With Matt Ryan at quarterback, Mike Smith as head coach, and Home Depot founder Arthur Blank, they have now finally nailed the trifecta you’ve identified, in my opinion.
I struggled slightily with where to put the Bears, however I still feel that they are very unproven and do not have great direction as an organization. It remains to be seen whether Jay Cutler will be the answer for them. He has all the talent in the world, but has never really put it together. He does not have much weaponry around him to help out. The Falcons are the team that are closest to joining the Blue Bloods. Do we really know if Mike Smith is a top NFL coach though? I think he is, but Atlanta will have to win a playoff game with this group before they move to the next level. That will be difficult as they will probably be a Wild Card team again this year with the way the Saints are playing.