Nadal Out; It Is Now or Never for Roger in Paris May 31, 2009
Posted by Neil in : Uncategorized , trackback 
The “King of Clay” Rafael Nadal was shockingly dismissed from the Round of 16 at the French Open today by Swede Robin Soderling in four sets. Here is an immediate reaction to the epic loss by Rafa and the opportunity that awaits Roger Federer to complete his career Slam and tie Pete Sampras’ mark of 14 GS titles:
I cannot think of a bigger upset in our lifetime in tennis. Nadal winning at the French has been the most sure thing in sports until today.
It is one thing for a Murray, Fed, or Djokovic to end his perfection in Paris, but another for a player like Soderling who is quite solid, but has never shown a penchant for being able to come up with a victory like this on clay. Robin has had a ton of good results at Wimbledon, and I wouldn’t have been surprised to see this result and score line at the Big W, but at Roland Garros it is amazing.
I now think that the winner of Murray-Gonzo will very likely be in the final. I am interested to see what Novak and Rafa’s losses will do to Federer. Will he be able to raise his mediocre play now that he is the favorite to take home his first French title? Will he actually play worse now that there is immense pressure on him to win it this year with Novak and Rafa gone by the quarters?
I have no doubt that he will tune Haas tomorrow. I am most interested by a potential QF against Monfils. If I had to put my pecking order for the title contenders right now, here they are:
1. Fed
2. Murray
3. Monfils
4. Tsonga
5. Del Potro 6. Gonzo
7. Roddick
8. Davydenko
Federer better root hard for Roddick to beat Monfils tomorrow. If Roddick takes care of the Frenchman, then I think it is pretty smooth sailing for Roger to get to the final and what could be an intriguing date with Andy Murray. However, if Monfils takes out Roddick, I really feel that Fed will succumb to the pressure of winning the title and will lose to Monfils in the QF. Then, the winner of the national French orgasm semifinal between Monfils and Tsonga will take on Murray in an intriguing final of Western European allied nations that will have Winston Churchill and Napolean breaking bread from the great courtside seats above.
I will say one thing with absolute conviction. I truly believe that if Fed doesn’t win this title, he will never win the French. He now has the perfect concoction for the title with no Novak and especially no Rafa. Nadal may not lose this early in this event for the rest of Fed’s career. It is now or never for Roger. It will be interesting to see if he is able to raise his game. The way he is playing right now is not good enough. This next week will provide one of the most interesting and most difficult tests to his legacy.
Comments»
Well-thought out instant reaction, Co-Host. The only point I’d disagree with you on, is that this is Roger’s only shot to win the French. Who knows what the future holds for us? If Nadal is capable of losing at the French, this year, who knows what other opportunities might lie ahead for the Swiss Maestro? Roger may have another year or two where this type of scenario happens. Other questions come to mind now: can we still frame Nadal’s loss to Federer in Madrid the same way we did, just days ago? Also, is Rafa able to handle the pressure of being #1, and having guys gunning for him, week-in, week-out? To me, Soderling’s win was just that: a player who relished at the opportunity of garnering himself a huge scalp by upsetting Nadal in his favorite surroundings. As we all know, it’s harder to be the Hunted than the Hunter….
I can’t completely rule out that he has an outside shot of winning it for the next 2-3 years, but I just don’t think the dominoes in Paris are going to fall this way for the rest of Fed’s career. Nadal has never lost at Roland Garros before today. Djokovic is routinely in the semis. Murray, Monfils, and Del Potro are getting better on the surface every day and will be even more formidable in the next few years. This may not be his absolute last chance, but it is by far the last time he will be a favorite going into the last week of the tourney. If anything, I think this loss by Nadal diminishes Fed’s victory over him in Madrid. Simply put, Nadal is not playing that well right now. Neither is Federer. The good thing for Rog is that he has a chance to steer the ship back on track. If he doesn’t raise the level of his game significantly when he plays Monfils, Tsonga, or Murray, he will not win. The tough thing to get a handle on is what this means for Rafa. He had the pressure of being ranked #1 when he won the Aussie. However, he really wasn’t the favorite there as he had never won a hard court slam going into the event. I think the losses by Nadal, Djokovic, and Verdasco are all signs of the overcrowded schedule on the ATP Tour, especially during March, April and May. These three guys all played a ton of matches the last 2.5 months. Inexplicably, all three of them seemed either mentally and/or physically fatigued in their losses. Does the Tour really need to play 5 of its 9 TMS events in a 2.5 month span (Indian Wells, Key Biscayne, Monte Carlo, Roma, and Madrid are contested between mid-March and mid-May). That is a lot of tennis for the top level guys. It has seemingly produced some less than stellar tennis by the stars at this year’s French.
Very compelling argument, here, Co-Host. Most of us have been aware for some time now, that there is an overcrowded schedule. What you point about the Masters Series congestion over 2.5 months in the spring time, though, is incredibly compelling. The top players are automatically entered in these events, and penalized heavily if they don’t partake. They are as intense as any event; as they provide for incredible showdowns amongst top ATP stars match-in match-out. That puts a lot of physical and mental strain on the players. Thus, they end up being gassed when they arrive in Paris.