2010 ATP Season Preview January 21, 2010
Posted by Paul in : Uncategorized , 2comments
Doha. Auckland. Sydney. Brisbane. All destinations where the circuit has stopped. The ATP Calendar has already commenced with several events in and around Australia. But most tennis fans consider them mere tune-ups; small hors d’oeuvres for the entrée that is the first Grand Slam of the year. To the entire sports world, the tennis season does not really start until the proceedings are kicked off in Melbourne Park for the Australian Open. At that point, casual sports fans turn their attention to the sports we all know and love. With that in mind, I thought I would engage you in an ATP Season Preview, where I will attempt to answer some of the burning questions leading into this tennis year. Let the queries begin….
1) How will Roger Federer react in 2010?
2009 had certainly been one of Federer’s most life-altering years. In a 12-month span, the Swiss Maestro has accomplished more than some have in an entire lifetime. Away from the court, Federer’s personal life was completely transformed, as he became a father and a husband. Roger married long time girlfriend Mirka Vavrinec in April. In late July, he welcomed his twin daughters into the world, Myla Rose and Charlene Riva. On the court, Federer was able to capture the only Grand Slam that had eluded him: Roland Garros. And with his win at Wimbledon, Federer won his 15th Grand Slam title, surpassing Sampras’ previous record of 14. With that accomplishment, many observers and peers were willing to crown Federer as the Greatest Player of All Time.
Along with these stellar accomplishments, Roger did show a good amount of frailty last year. In the Australian Open final, which he lost to Nadal, Fed played an uncharacteristic fifth set, that left most tennis analysts dumbfounded. Had Roger given up, or just played that badly when it mattered most? Those puzzling thoughts were only worsened by Federer’s post-match emotional outburst during the trophy presentation. His tears were flowing so much, and his sentiments so raw, that Nadal felt compelled to comfort the opponent he had just vanquished minutes earlier. It created a beautiful moment between rivals, but also opened our eyes to Federer’s psyche. The Grand Slam record meant so much to him, and falling short in the encounter in front of his idol Rod Laver was just too much for him to take. Another moment of vulnerability that came out of an otherwise spectacular year was his last match at a Major in 2009. Federer ended up losing the US Open finals match, after holding a 2-sets-to-1 lead to a much less experienced opponent. The way he let the match slip away, only to be over-matched by the power of his younger opponent (including a 6-2 fifth set score) left many pundits wondering if he could keep dominating the field in 2010. Yes, Roger may well be the greatest shot-maker of all-time. And yes, he may now have assured himself the top spot in the GOAT debate. But can he keep it up with the group of players that have been able to match up favorably against him? How is he to react to a year that has left him largely a transformed man? If we have learned anything about Roger throughout the years, it is his continued, consistent excellence at the Slams. At last check, the man had been in 22 straight semifinals. The Federer Express has reached ten consecutive Grand Slam finals, including 17 of his last 18. This type of constant dominance just doesn’t exist in an era known for its incredible depth. Knowing that, Roger is sure to give himself plenty of chances to bring home some Slam hardware this year. Count on Federer to give himself a shot at a few Slam titles this year, just by his sheer consistency at Majors. Count on it like Swiss clockwork.
2) Will Rafael Nadal manage his schedule more judiciously?
When Nadal first came on the Tour, many thought that his whip-like forehand and overall physical style may take a toll on this body. For a few years, there, that theory was dismissed as yet another unsubstantiated inference. Until last year. Our biggest fears about the Majorcan finally came true, as Rafa ended up missing key portions of the calendar with shaky knees and tweaked abdominal muscles; both of which seemed to hamper him throughout the year. Nadal has seemed to put quite a few many things behind him this past year, including the divorce of his own parents, which must have been a distracting and disheartening occurrence. If there is something that he must have learned (the hard way), it is that he must pick and choose his tournament dates with more judgment and care, if he is to remain atop the ATP rankings. His style is inherently physical both to him and his opponents. If given the appropriate rest, there is very little doubt in most tennis minds that he can regain a form that will make him a tough proposition for anyone to deal with. Look for Nadal to hand pick the Tour destinations where he will show up and play his best. On his off weeks, Rafa will make sure to kick his feet up just enough to allow for the adequate recuperation to a body that had already taken quite a bit of pounding. If Nadal is able to stay away from the Tour enough, he is sure to give the competition his best, when he does step on the court.
3) Can Andy Roddick capture a second Grand Slam title?
Perhaps the greatest thing that Roddick accomplished last year, apart from tying the knot with a swimsuit model, is increasing his appeal worldwide. His heroic effort against Federer at Wimbledon in that epic final earned him points globally as a top competitor in the Men’s game. And the way he took the loss, both with grace and honest emotion, made him even more human and likable to the mainstream audience that caught the match. Roddick was not this brash Texan that blew people off the court with a rifle for a serve. He became the sensitive man, who after not winning his 2nd career slam, let us into what he was feeling. The emotions were palpable for everyone. And his class in accepting defeat was something we could all relate to. Roddick may not have been the victor on that day, but he certainly won over a lot of folks in the audience. Looking at the number of Slam opportunities Roddick is presented with, before he reaches his athletic mortality, it would seem it hard to believe that he would be an odds-on favorite to win a Slam in 2010. Andy could certainly squeak his way into the winner’s circle with a few fortunate breaks (read injuries to top players, or early upsets in Slams). And considering his Herculean efforts of the past year, he would certainly deserve it. Through much of the middle years of his career, Andy has played the role of a tragic figure in Men’s Tennis. Let’s all hope he is compensated for his efforts of the recent past, with a Grand Slam win that would certainly be the bow on his Hall-of-Fame career.
4) How will Juan Martin Del Potro deal with success?
The man is now well-known the world over. With his first Grand Slam title, Del Potro went from being an obscure tennis player recognized only by tennis aficionados to global tennis star known by the most casual of sports fans. There are two things that Juan Martin will have to watch for, as he ventures into this campaign. First of all, in the sports world, there is a that little term called a “Sophomore Slump”. Last year, although not his first, Del Potro demonstrated to the tennis world why he deserved to be considered one of the game’s elites. The key is whether he will be able to maintain his position amongst the top players, without letting up. Players have now been able to see him play, and dissect his game. Coaches around the Tour have watched enough game tape of him, and are now poised to respond with their well-concocted stratagems. How he deals with his new-found fame and success is going to be critical to his maintaining good form in 2009. The other piece of the Delpo equation in ‘10 is his ability to go from the “hunter” to the “hunted”. Once one has won a Slam, you become a marked man in the tennis universe. Fellow competitors do not consider you their equal. You are now a potential scalp, they will be able to brag about to their entourage, if they can pull off the upset. Players rise to the occasion when playing you, and you find yourself having to take your opponents’ best punches match-in, match-out. That can certainly be a tall order for any young man. One thing is for sure about Juan Martin Del Potro. He has an uncanny ability to stay, or at least look relaxed. Having been in a few press conferences with him, over the past year, I have been impressed by his calm demeanor. On a couple of occasions, I even wondered if the man had a pulse. This uncommon quality is likely to serve him well, as the stakes are now raised for the Argentine. His capacity to handle this new pressure is going to be a determining factor on how well he builds on last year’s accomplishments.
5) Will Andy Murray assert himself as a true #3 in the rankings?
When Wimbledon rolls around the excitation of most Brits is palpable even from across the pond. The nation goes into a tizzy, as Murray attempts to make another run on the lawns at SW19. Andy Murray has long carried the hopes of Great Britain as its next great player. He has shouldered the burden of expectation with him, as he embarks into each Grand Slam. Murray has made questionable decisions with his coaches, prematurely separating himself from Brad Gilbert, ending a mentor-protégé relationship that lasted only 16 months. He’s also made odd personal decisions. This past year, the Scot parted ways with his long-time girlfriend Kim Sears, who had become a familiar fixture at his tournaments. Their break-up was reported to have happened over Andy’s penchant for video games. 2009 was supposed to have been the year for Andy to finally win a Major. He was physically fit. He had added bulk to a previously wiry frame. He entered the year, ranked 4th in the world. Murray was supposed to make a big splash at a Slam. Instead, he didn’t manage to meet expectations, reaching only one Slam semifinal (at Wimbledon), which was his best result. Yes, he took home 5 ATP titles. But if Andy is to be judged as one of the game’s greats, he will have to capture some Grand Slam hardware at some point. Perhaps it’s immaturity. Perhaps, it is just giving himself an opportunity to accept the pressure. Whatever the reason is, Murray needs to seize the day in 2010 and elevate his game when the lights shine brightest. If he doesn’t, the murmurs will start about him not making the most of his natural ability. And for such a heady player, it would be disappointing to see Murray not figure it out.
6) Can Djokovic focus on his game enough to be considered amongst the game’s elite players?
He’s got water named after him. Check that, water and an energy bar. Wait! A nice restaurant in Belgrade. A tournament that he helps run, once a year. To say that Djokovic has more going on in his life than just his tennis is a severe understatement. The young Serb oozes charisma and attracts business opportunities like a garden light draws in insects. The big question about Novak is whether he will maintain a discipline that will allow him to dedicate himself to the sport he has excelled at. In tennis, many have been distracted by off the court temptations and opportunities. One can only hope that Djokovic surrounds himself with positive influences that will help him recognize his true purpose as an tennis player: to put out his very best between the lines on a daily basis. It seems like the bright lights of stardom may have gotten to the young man. Let’s only hope he’s able to delegate some of his side responsibilities, while maintaining a singular focus on the skill that got him all the fame and fortune he already possesses. If he’s unable to do that in 2009, this year may serve him a humbling lesson that will have him re-evaluate his life and lifestyle.
A Fortnight Down Under January 17, 2010
Posted by Neil in : Uncategorized , 6comments 
The shortest offseason in sports is over, and as the calendar turns to a new decade the tennis world is set to christen 2010 by battling for the next two weeks in Melbourne. Even though it seems like Nikolay Davydenko just held up the trophy at the O2 in London, the first Grand Slam of the year commences on Monday. While most around the game certainly feel that a longer offseason would benefit the quality of play and the longevity of careers, the players must gear up for two steamy weeks Down Under.
The Australian Open is the most difficult Grand Slam to prognosticate. While the players have had only two months to recuperate from the grind of 2009, some players have used that brief respite to train rigorously in an attempt to make their mark at the Happy Slam, while others have used this time to get away from the game to make sure their body holds up for another 10+ month season. While I firmly believe that the tennis calendar must be shortened for the sake of having the best tennis players in the world actually play (and try) their best at all times, I will get off the soap box and try to predict the always unpredictable fortnight ahead in Australia.
As we left 2009, we were left with many impressions of the landscape at the top of the men’s game. Robin Soderling has improved a lot. He was able to break into the top 10 largely based on his impressive win over Rafa at the French and stay there. This was capped by a great performance at the year end event in London and has seemingly carried into 2010 where he rang in the new year with an exhibition win over Federer (the first time he has ever beaten him) in Abu Dhabi.
In addition, Nikolay Davydenko has been the best player on Tour since November. He won the year end title and then started this year off by taking home the title in Doha dispatching of Federer and Nadal. While Soderling and Davydenko are certainly guys to watch for Down Under and throughout the year, I don’t believe they are credible title contenders for the year’s first major. Soderling can hit anyone off the court and is capable of beating anybody on any surface (see his win over Nadal at the French last year), however the big hitting Swede still has movement issues, and I don’t believe he will ever hold up over seven best of 5 matches. Then again, this is the Aussie and Thomas Johansson has his name on the trophy. Similarly, I think Davydenko will wear down over the course of two weeks and while he is able to beat the Nadal’s of the world in best of 3 matches, I don’t see him penetrating past the semis and winning a Grand Slam title during his career.
I have gotten to this point without mentioning the greatest player of all time (the GOAT), #1 player, and the man who got to each of the Slam finals last year. While I maintain that Federer’s dominance over the field continues to shrink, he still has to be the favorite to win this title. While stories like Davydenko and Soderling are nice, when it is time to pick the champion, the banter starts and basically ends with Federer and Nadal in my book. While Federer should be the betting favorite to take the title, I really like how Nadal has prepared for this event. He did not use the two months since London as an offseason. He used the vast majority of it to gear up to defend his title in Melbourne. He will take his break after this event. He played superb in taking home the exhibition title over Soderling in Abu Dhabi and while he suffered a road bump to Davydenko in Doha, he is poised to challenge for a Grand Slam title for the first time since this event last year.
While Roger and Rafa are the favorites to meet in the final in two Sundays, the usual cast of suspects is ready to challenge them. Djokovic had a solid fall indoors, but I always question his mental toughness and physical stability in Melbourne. While he won his only Grand Slam title in Australia a few short years ago, the memory of his match with Roddick in last year’s quarterfinal still burns bright. He is always capable of winning the title, but I would seriously question his chances.
Juan Martin Del Potro was the last man to hold a Grand Slam trophy aloft as he officially arrived near the top of the men’s game with his incredibly impressive weekend in New York where he demolished Nadal and humanized Federer. However, he has largely been ravaged by injury since and has not been able to post good results. He is hampered by ailments going into this event and that coupled with a difficult early draw could mean an early exit for the lanky Argentine. I don’t expect a deep run for him here, but he certainly will be a force at the Slams for the rest of the year and well beyond.
That leaves the two mercurial Andy’s. Murray has posted strange results for the past year. I thought he was poised to break through Down Under last year, but was knocked out by Verdasco. He then fell to Gonzo at the French in the quarters. He was poised to reach the finals at Wimbledon, but was outclasssed by Roddick. He then got demolished by Cilic in New York. Murray was a clear #3 for much of the past year plus, but has been passed by Djokovic and Del Potro. I expect a big 2010 from him, but would be surprised if he was able to win his first Grand Slam title this month.
Andy Roddick is still relevant near the top of the men’s game. He was tantalizingly close to winning that coveted 2nd major of his career, but blew the 2nd set tiebreaker and fell to Federer in an epic 5 set Wimbledon final. Roddick was hampered throughout the fall with a knee injury. However, that may have been a good thing for him. While others battled for weeks during the indoor season, Roddick actually had a true offseason to re-group, decompress, and regain his mental and physical strength for 2010. He held up well in taking home the title in Brisbane, however that was against a watered down field. I profess that America’s Andy only has 9-12 more chances to win a second Grand Slam title. He has the next 3 or 4 years at the Australian, Wimbledon, and the US Open (as he will never be relevant in Paris). This event gives him a decent puncher’s chance. He is on the opposite side of the draw from Federer. He got the best of all potential quarterfinal opponents in Delpo (whom I don’t think will make the quarters), and is rested and ready unlike many of his competitors who battled all season.
Here is my breakdown for this year’s fortnight Down Under:
1st Quarter:
This quarter is particularly brutal. It contains the best player of all time (Federer), the best player in the world since November (Davydenko), and the most dangerous unseeded player (Baghdatis). Sprinkle in last year’s semifinalist Down Under Fernando Verdasco, and you have a truly tasty quarter.
Federer is currently in the midst of the greatest streak in sports history in my opinion. He has reached an astounding 22 consecutive Grand Slam semis. His last loss before the semis was in the 2004 French Open. The previous record for consecutive semis was 10 by Ivan Lendl. However, while Roger is 110-0 in Grand Slam matches before the semis since that ‘04 French, there is not a guarantee that he will extend his streak to 23.
Federer faces about as difficult a first round opponent as a top seed could draw. He takes on Russian Igor Andreev who is usually seeded in the twenties in a Grand Slam, and has pushed Federer to the brink in a major before. The two battled over five scintillating sets at Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York a few years ago before Federer was able to subdue the hard-hitting Russian. Andreev plays with pure brut force from the backcourt and possesses one of the biggest forehands in the game. If he plays well against Roger and the Swiss Maestro is not at the top of his game, then a shocking first round ouster is a possibility. However, Andreev has never been consistent enough to break into the top 10 and will not be able to keep the ball in the court enough to beat Roger in a best of 5, and thus I like Federer to escape into Round 2 in four.
Federer’s path after Andreev looks clear until the 4th round. He may face a small quiz from Romania’s Victor Hanescu in Round 2, but he should breeze into the second week. In the Round of 16 he will face either Baghdatis or #22 seed Lleyton Hewitt. Those two will meet in a delicious third round encounter that will hopefully be a reprisal of their all-night battle on Rod Laver Arena a few years ago. They will surely be scheduled in the night session again, and I like these two to battle the distance. Baghdatis played superb in taking home the title in Sydney with wins over Mardy Fish and cocaine-kisser Richard Gasquet (another dangerous floater). I like the Cypriot to show some of the form that got him to the Oz final a few years ago and defeat David Ferrer in Round 2 and Hewitt in the 3rd round. However, in a rematch of the 2006 Aussie final, Federer will once again prove superior in a 4 set triumph to move on to the quarters.
His opponent there will be either #9 seed Fernando Verdasco or #7 seed Nikolay Davydenko. Verdasco (much like Soderling) took a huge step forward in 2009. It all started with a stirring run Down Under where he defeated Andy Murray and pushed Rafa Nadal to the brink in a riveting 5 set semifinal encounter. Verdasco disappointed in some of the other Slams the rest of the season (except a quarterfinal appearance in NY). I like the smooth Spaniard to move past big serving lefty Carsten Ball, Israel’s Dudi Sela, and then countrymen and #23 seed Juan Carlos Ferrero to reach the 4th Round. There he will face Davydenko in a war of attrition.
Davydenko has put up the best results on Tour since November. He held the biggest trophy of his career aloft in winning the season ending title in London. He then started 2010 by downing a super field in Doha. However, I always question Nikolay’s mental makeup and ability to move deep into Slams. His consistency and movement will push him into the second week, but I have a difficult time envisioning him breaking through to the semis. Especially, with this draw. I like him to dispatch German qualifier Dieter Kindlmann, Carlos Moya, and #30 seed Juan Monaco (or dangerous unseeded players Ernestis Gulbis or Michael Llodra) to reach the 4th round, however in that round he will be stopped by Verdasco in a 5 set battle that could last well over four hours.
Regardless of whether the opponent is Verdasco or Davydenko, I like Roger to march to his 23rd consecutive Grand Slam semifinal. The world #1 is just too consistently good on this surface to be beaten in a best of 5 match at this point by someone not named Nadal.
2nd Quarter:
While the 1st quarter of the draw is the strongest in my opinion, the 2nd quarter is by far the weakest. It is headlined by #3 seed Novak Djokovic. The Serb played well in the indoor season and with a fairly pedestrian early draw does have the luxury of working his way into the event without the prospect of an early exit. He will breeze through the first 3 rounds and then take on either #20 seed Mikhail Youzhny, Richard Gasquet, or #16 Tommy Robredo in the 4th Round.
Youzhny and Gasquet meet in one of the most enticing first round encounters in Melbourne. The uber-talented Frenchman has seemingly put his controversial 2009 in the rear view mirror (although I am sure he will not be going to any South Beach nightclubs when TMS Miami rolls around). After the most noted kiss in recent tennis history, Gasquet was physically absent or mentally missing for virtually the entire season. He has regrouped as evidenced by his inspired play in reaching the final of Syndey before succumbing to Baghdatis. I like Gasquet to take out Youzhny in four, and then dispatch Robredo in five in the 3rd round.
Djokovic and Gasquet will meet in a wonderful shot making 4th round encounter. While Gasquet may have the leg up as far as flair, Djokovic will be too solid and will move on in four sets. In the quarters, he will take on #8 seed Robin Soderling. The Swede seems to be everyone’s pick to lose early Down Under based on his less then exemplary results he has posted in the Happy Slam. However, this is a new Soderling who has worked hard to cement himself in the top eight of the world and has no designs on leaving anytime soon. He has a favorable draw and will mow through unseeded Benjamin Becker or #26 seed Nicholas Almagro in Round 3, before taking out #18 Tommy Haas or #10 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Round 4. Soderling is playing too well to have yet another disappointment Down Under. He loves a target and will get one if he faces the aggressive Frenchman Tsonga.
This quarter will hold form with a quarterfinal battle between #8 Soderling and #3 Djokovic. While Soderling is certainly capable of beating the humorous Serb, the Swede’s lack of movement will finally catch up to him in this encounter. While his swiftness around the court has certainly improved in the last year, it is still a weakness for the big swinging Swede, and I like Novak to take advantage of this in four long sets.
However, that will be where the event ends for Novak. He seems to always run into Federer in the semis of the hard court Slams. He was able to dethrone Roger in the semis in Melbourne a few years ago, however that was a depleted Federer and that history will not repeat itself in this fortnight. I like Federer to defeat Djokovic in four and move on to yet another Grand Slam final.
3rd Quarter:
If Andy Roddick made the draw himself, this is exactly the scenario he would have laid out. Roddick is on the other side of the draw from Federer, and was dropped into the quarter with the top four seed who has the most questions going into the event (#4 seed Juan Martin Del Potro). While there is no guarantee that America’s Andy will take advantage of this fortunate draw and reach the semis, his title in Brisbane should at least be encouraging to his fans. He must be wary of a couple of big hitters (see Querrey in Round 3 and Berdych or Gonzalez in Round 4), however if he serves well he should move through this quarter.
I like Roddick to dismiss the young Dutch Thiemo de Bakker, Teimuraz Gabashvili, and tricky Spanish lefty Feliciano Lopez to move onto the Round of 16. Lopez will already have dispatched #25 seeded American Sam Querrey, who is thankfully back on Tour after a scary locker room incident last fall that required a major arm surgery. This has seemingly stymied Querrey’s momentum toward the top 15 of the game. He was poised to break through after an excellent summer hard court season (including a first victory over Roddick in Cincy), however he was unable to play the TMS events in the fall due to this injury and has lost both of his matches in the Aussie warm-up events.
Berdych and Gonzo will battle in a huge-hitting 3rd round encounter for the right to face Roddick. I like Berdych to beat the Chilean in five. Roddick will then dispatch the talented Czech in four tight sets to move onto the quarters.
In the quarters, Roddick will take on #14 seed Marin Cilic. The Croat is ready to continue his move towards the top five in 2010. I think he will continue to show the brilliant form that saw him absolutely undress Andy Murray at the US Open last year, and will thoroughly defeat the Favre-esqe Frenchman Fabrice Santoro in Round 1, Aussie prodigy Bernard Tomic in Round 2, and Swiss #2 Stan Wawrinka in Round 3. In the Round of 16, he will face either American James Blake or #4 seed Juan Martin Del Potro.
James Blake is not a relevant player in the Slams anymore, however he may be able to have one more week in the sun Down Under. He faces a potentially maddening test from Frenchman Arnaud Clement in Round 1 in a matchup of players who have become shells of their former selves. He should get past that and be able to battle Del Potro. I would normally give the US Open champion a huge edge in this matchup, but I do not have a good feeling about the Argentine in this event. He could easily lose to Blake in Round 2. If he does not, he will lose to Cilic in a battle of skyscrapers.
Roddick and Cilic will provide for a wonderful 5 set quarterfinal encounter. A year from now I would probably favor Cilic, however the American will outcage the still precocious Croat. Roddick only has about a dozen Grand Slams left in his career in which he can be a relevant factor. He will not pass on this opportunity and will move on to the semis.
4th Quarter:
While the 1st quarter may be the deepest, this quarter may contain the most difficult landmine of seeds to wade through. #5 seed Andy Murray and #2 seed and defending champion Rafa Nadal headline the quarter, however there are dangerous big hitters lurking in #33 seed John Isner, Ivo Karlovic, and Sydney semifinalist Mardy Fish. Add all-court players in #12 seed Gael Monfils and #13 seed Radek Stepanek and you have a truly difficult quarter.
Murray will breeze past qualifying South African Kevin Anderson, Frenchman Marc Gicquel, and Florent Serra or #28 seed Jurgen Melzer to reach the 4th round. Once there, he will take on flashy Frenchman Gael Monfils. The athletic Monfils will have waltzed through his first two rounds before surviving a tricky 3rd round over either big serving American #33 seed John Isner (who just won in Auckland) or the always solid Italian Andreas Seppi.
Monfils and Murray will battle in the 4th round match I am most looking forward to. These two are maybe the most athletic players on Tour (along with Roger and Rafa), and will provide many points that will be remembered for some time. I like the way Monfils finished off 2009 better then how the Scot did, and as such I am giving him the edge in a 5 set affair.
Rafael Nadal is playing his best tennis since last year when he won the title in Melbourne. He seems to be healthy and played well in Abu Dhabi and decent in Doha to prepare for this event. He has been targeting this title for the last few months. Despite a fairly difficult draw, he will move past #27 seeded German Phillip Kohlschreiber in Round 3 and surprise Round of 16 opponent Mardy Fish. The American will have defeated #24 seeded Croat Ivan Ljubicic in Round 2 and then either #13 seed Radek Stepanek or Ivo Karlovic (these two play in an absolutely delicious serve and volley 1st round matchup) in Round 3.
Fish may take a set from Rafa in Round 4, but no more. Mardy’s backhand seemingly has improved over the brief offseason, which is impressive considering that was already his biggest weapon. However, his forehand still breaks down in the biggest moments. Marcos Baghdatis continually broke down that wing during their riveting 3 set Sydney semi. Fish’s lovely wife Stacy Gardner will get to enjoy one more full week Down Under, but then Nadal will destroy Fish in straight sets as Nadal will punish Mardy’s forehand.
Nadal will then face Monfils in another athletic encounter. Nadal wore Monfils down in a US Open night match in September, and is still way too consistent for the flashy Frenhman. I like Nadal to dispose of him in a 4 set quarterfinal.
Nadal and Roddick will then meet in what should be a tight semifinal. While they have met in the Davis Cup, these two have yet to meet late in a Grand Slam event. Their most meaningful matchup to date will be a close affair, however unless Roddick serves the match of his life, Rafa is too consistent from the baseline. Roddick will sneak out a tiebreaker, but Rafa will move on in 4.
Championship Rematch:
The final will be a reprise of last year’s emotional changing of the guard Down Under. Federer was truly humanized for the first time in his career, as Rafa broke Fed’s spirits in the 5th set and Federer went away quietly and sobbing into the Aussie night. Federer will not hand this match away like he did last year. However, Rafa has geared up for this event and will not be denied. I like this one to go the distance once again, however Nadal breaks Federer late in the 5th set and takes home his second consecutive title Down Under.
Tiger Woods’ New Hero? Lane Kiffin January 15, 2010
Posted by Paul in : Uncategorized , 1 comment so far
We just had to post this to our website, as we found it priceless when we first laid eyes on it. This picture is courtesy of Volunteer Mike Richards, who has been a long time contributor to the radio program, in many capacities. He was good enough to send it our way. Coach Kiffin has managed to grab the sports world’s spotlight, all the while delivering Tennessee an old-fashioned screwing. Talk about a multi-tasker!
Big Mac Delivers Hollow Revelation January 13, 2010
Posted by Paul in : Uncategorized , 4comments
The answer to the photo caption above is “yes”. Mark McGwire has finally come clean. He has finally told us that he played dirty. In a carefully-crafted statement released to the Associated Press, McGwire delivered a truth that most of us were already suspecting: the man used steroids during his playing career. Most of the baseball world is reacting loudly to this latest revelation. Before getting yourself in a tizzy over this latest admission, let’s try to think about this with a cool head. In the end, very little new material came into the public sphere today. The back room murmurs and behind-the-scenes judgments slung at McGwire were finally validated, by the written prose he put out on the press wire.
First things first: did you really think that McGwire wasn’t juicing, or hadn’t taken any performance-enhancing substances throughout his career? If that’s the case, I might have had a chance to convince you that Santa Claus, the Tooth Fairy, or unicorns exist. You are naive if you did not somehow suspect that Big Mac had, at some point, taken some kind of performance-enhancing drug. The guy had increased considerably in muscle mass over the years. So much so, that he came to be known as a larger-than-life figure in baseball; a Paul Bunyan of sorts, towering over fellow players, and belting home runs with such ease, that his bat looked more like a toothpick than wooden stick, in his bulging arms. In this case, like many involving steroids or HGH, the eye test just did not deceive us. All of our suspicions were verified today, as McGwire set out to perform a well-thought out public relations campaign with the goal of rehabilitating his image, as he re-enters the game of baseball.
There are a few reasons why McGwire came out with this long-awaited admission today. This is the first time in a while that Big Mac was about to come back into the public eye. Since leaving the game a few years back, the former Cardinals slugger had largely lived a very private life. Cardinals Manager Tony La Russa brought him in as his new Hitting Coach this season. With that new role, McGwire was going to be pressed by reporters. “Why do you think you haven’t made the Hall of Fame, yet, Mark?”, he would have been asked. “Do you think that your reluctance to discuss your involvement with performance-enhancing drugs in front of Congress plays a role in your not getting the required votes for Hall of Fame induction?”, another sports writer would have followed-up. The fact is, the barrage of questions and media activity around the Cardinals would have been intense both for McGwire and his new employer, the St. Louis Cardinals. Consider this statement by Big Mac as a preemptive PR strike. Instead of facing an onslaught of media attention that would have been distracting to both him and his organization, Big Mac and his people decided to diffuse the punch that would have been packed by the press had this confession not come forth. After all, in our modern media world, if a public figure doesn’t run, journalists just do not chase. It is when something is kept hidden, that reporters dig even deeper. When the truth comes out in the open and sits there motionless, reporters are left with very little to do.
In his wordsmithed statement, McGwire intimates strongly that he only used steroids only to recuperate from injuries, and not to improve his performance, “During the mid-’90s, I went on the DL seven times and missed 228 games over five years. I experienced a lot of injuries, including a ribcage strain, a torn left heel muscle, a stress fracture of the left heel, and a torn right heel muscle. It was definitely a miserable bunch of years and I told myself that steroids could help me recover faster. I thought they would help me heal and prevent injuries, too. ” For the sake of the exercise, let’s imagine that this statement was 100% accurate and that one was to believe this assertion fully. At the end of the day, injuries are part of high-level athletics. Performing at a top level in sports means performing “in the red.” Your body is constantly put at risk of injuries. Those that maintain longevity are lucky enough to have bodies which resist to the constant strain of high-performance sport. This type of blessing is equivalent to the luck one has in having the talent required to hit a curve ball. It is in the realm of natural ability. Some bodies have the proficiency to remain healthy or heal quickly, just as others have a hard time recuperating from intense strain. This innate characteristic plays as much a part in an athlete’s career as the innate ability to hit a 100 mph fast ball over the center field fence. Even if we were to believe McGwire’s rationale fully, it takes the most essential logic to prove that these steroids had an effect on his performance. With the drugs he was taking, Big Mac was able to return to the baseball diamond. Without them, he clearly could not have returned to the field of play. As hitting home runs takes getting some playing time, it is no stretch in logic to posit that steroids did indirectly help him hit some home runs.
Now, having established that, I refuse to believe that steroids did not somehow enhance McGwire’s performance. Granted steroids play a huge role in helping people recuperate from injury. But the Steroid Era has taught us that power numbers are greatly enhanced by steroids and HGH. Sure a bottle of pills is not hitting the home runs. It takes great hand-eye coordination to be able to make contact with a baseball and hit it far. But it has become undeniable that steroids and HGH can provide additional length and power to hits after impact. I won’t get into the science of fast-twitch muscle fiber or additional muscular growth brought on by PEDs. Those lessons are better taught by physicians and sports medicine experts. What I can give you is a personal anecdote. Back a few years ago, when I was training extensively in the sport of tennis, I had a sparring partner from Germany, who had been a semi-pro handball player, in his youth. The man was a great mover on the court, and a consistent ground stroker. In other words, he was a highly competent practice partner. When the steroids controversy first broke, I can distinctly remember a conversation I had with him. Back in his handball playing days, he had had a leg injury, which involved tendon and ligament damage. His doctors had recommended he take steroids for rehabilitation. This gentleman recounted this anecdote because it was meaningful. He went on to tell me that while on these steroids, he had never felt this explosive, as an athlete. He was able to do things that, before taking them, were just unconscionable. His leaps were more dynamic. His legs thrusts more powerful. All in all, his athletic ability had been clearly increased by taking steroids. There was a distinct positive difference in his sporting prowess brought on by his use of steroids for recuperation purposes. The fact of the matter is McGwire may have tried steroids in an effort to get back from injury. But to sell the general public on the fact that none of this steroids use helped him in hitting home runs is more than a stretch. It’s an outright lie.
The final question that should be addressed here, is whether or not this announcement enhances McGwire’s chances of making the Hall of Fame. Some may say that his coming clean may make him more likable to the writers and therefore give him a better shot at entering Cooperstown. Another faction may try to convince you that his admission puts a dagger in any chance of him getting admitted. The fact of the matter is that at this current pace, McGwire was not going to make the Hall of Fame. As of this year’s voting, Big Mac earned just 23.7% of the votes; needing 75% to get in. With this trajectory, and despite having a few more years on the ballot, there was little doubt in most peoples’ minds that McGwire would most likely not make it in Cooperstown. This latest admission could not hurt. It only contained upside for McGwire and his Hall of Fame standing. Will he now make it? Probably not. Even though the former Cardinals slugger has built himself plenty of good will within baseball circles, this latest mea culpa will not help his chances much with Hall of Fame voters. Baseball writers, who are largely responsible for inducting hall-of-famers, tend to be purists when it comes to their treasured National Pastime. Although McGwire has been an endearing figure with most media members, there is a large-scale sentiment that he had largely been a one-dimensional player. Take away his home run statistics and power numbers and the larger-than-life legend sinks down to a mere mortal. Because steroids and HGH have demonstrated a larger positive effect on power numbers above all other performance metrics, it becomes tough for these Cooperstown gate keepers to give McGwire the nod. Mac may have done a little to repair his image after a Congressional hearing intervention that left many disappointed. But, when it comes to his baseball immortality, many will consider this a small airbrush to his image; far from a permanent change that will have him walk through Cooperstown’s white pearly gates….
Resolutions for the Sports World in 2010 January 9, 2010
Posted by Paul in : Uncategorized , 4comments
Kisses under the mistletoe are no longer spontaneously occurring. The Xmas trees have been thrown out. And the Holiday Season joviality and overeating have largely subsided. It’s back to business for much of the world. And time for a sobering wake up call. Most of us are not only back to work, but also have decided to look at ourselves in the mirror, and see where we could make improvements in our respective lives. Because the sports world often has a difficult time taking a hard look at itself, I have taken it upon myself to lend a helping hand in this arduous task.
In the few days since the New Year, where my contemplation for this piece has taken place, a lot of grist for my mill has been taken away. Late last year, I could have started my list of resolutions with, “Dan Snyder should stop meddling with his head coach.” Well, as we have it now, the Redskins owner has hired a capable head coach in Mike Shanahan. And those close to the Skins remark that when Snyder has a coach whose credentials he respects, like Joe Gibbs for instance, he steers clear of all football operations. And in Shanahan, he certainly has a man with an impressive resume, and unquestioned credibility in football circles. Another resolution I could have written mid-way through the NFL Season is: “Please tell Tony Romo to start stepping up for his team in December.” That statement has been taken off my table, as Romo has become the toast of the town in Dallas, with a December to remember. The Cowboys QB has put up these outstanding numbers. In the last three weeks, Romo has completed 71 of 106 passes for 909 yards; with four touchdowns and only two picks. One of the two INTs came off a tipped pass. Yet another could have been about Urban Meyer taking it easy on himself. It would seem like he’s already addressing that, with a retirement announcement, that was later recanted for a leave of absence. And I won’t even get into the BCS system conversation. That piece has gotten more than enough discussion over the past couple of years, including recent Presidential intervention. How can I compete with that?
Clearly not all is wrong with the sports universe we all follow. But there are a few portions that can be improved, just like that extra 10 pounds, quite a few of us are carrying around. So, without further ado, and before more potential resolutions can be picked off my plate, here are my recommendations for resolutions for the sports world in 2010.
1) To the Modern Professional Athlete: Turn in your guns. Most of us thought that Plaxico Burress’ case would have served as an example for professional athletes. Somehow, we believed some sense would have been knocked into them. Guns are in no way a good thing to carry around, much less bring to work, particularly in states with tough gun laws. Apparently the message didn’t quite come through loud and clear. Gilbert Arenas is now embroiled in a situation that could leave him with a voided contract, because, at best, he had decided to bring guns to the arena, at home games. At worst, according to certain reports, he was involved in an altercation in the locker room with a teammate, where guns were drawn. Arenas has now been suspended indefinitely by the NBA, as the criminal investigation is still ongoing. Burress is currently serving a two-year prison sentence for figuratively shooting himself in the foot, and literally shooting himself in the thigh, at a crowded Manhattan nightclub. Arenas may be looking at losing a substantial part of his $111 million contract, if the Wizards move to try to get rid of him. But the bigger question is: when will professional athletes understand that carrying guns does not make them cool?
2) Tiger Woods needs to focus on golf. The best way Tiger can face the media onslaught and probing press conference questions is by impressing us on the golf course. His play needs to take the forefront when talking about him. And the only way he manages to do that is by coming back with a furry, and dominating the field like he once did. If Tiger Woods returns to the Tour and struggles, the murmurs about a damaged personal life and deflated public persona will inhabit every gallery and press tent around the golf world. If he wows us with his play, Tiger will convince us that everything is back to normal in his life. The questions about his private life will almost seem out of place, at that point.
3) The 49ers need to find a starting quarterback. The excuses for Alex Smith are getting to be pitiful and insulting to him, even. The Utah alum has been given countless opportunities to succeed. And the only time where he has looked remotely at ease is in his most comfortable surroundings: the spread offense. It has become grand time to find someone who can lead this organization into its next chapter of dominance. Too many positive steps have been taken in the past couple of years to be held back by the team’s signal-caller.
4) To big-time college coaches: do not let your power go to your head. In the past few weeks, two college football coaches have been fired for abusive behavior towards their players. Jim Leavitt of the University of South Florida and Mike Leach of Texas Tech have both been let go because they probably though they were bigger than the programs they headed. Listen, I understand that college sports have become big business. And I understand that the coaches are the most important piece in that equation. Players transition in-and-out in four years or less. The head coach is the emblem of the athletic program, and one of the head evangelists of the university. Quite a few privileges come with that kind of power and responsibility. But could we not forget the most central mission for these coaches? I know it gets a little convoluted, at times. But head coaches are there to instill some life lessons to young men entering adulthood. How is one supposed to set an example when physical abuse is resorted to, in certain situations? Enough said.
5) Baseball Hall of Fame voters should put their feelings aside when deciding whether a player should be allowed into Cooperstown. This sentiment has existed for quite while, as it pertains to the baseball writers in charge of deciding who should get into the Hall of Fame. But it has reached a fever pitch this year, when a player like Roberto Alomar, largely considered a shoe-in for induction, did not make it on the first ballot. Simply put, Baseball Hall of Fame voters act like gatekeepers to Hardball Heaven. Very few players are spared any purgatory before admittance. Often times, baseball writers cannot put their feelings aside when it comes to voting for players. An old grudge will often prevent a writer from voting in a player whose numbers and performances make him a hall-of-fame certainty. That type of “payback” should be closely monitored and punished by some kind of oversight committee, put together by baseball. And I won’t even get into the relevance of having writers as Hall of Fame voters as opposed to other groups (broadcasters, peers, hall-of-famers, etc.), who would make just as much sense, in that role. That type of reform would be too much for Bud Selig and Company to handle, considering their track record….
Catch a Tiger by the Tail January 2, 2010
Posted by Neil in : Uncategorized , 3comments 
Until last August, the world thought Tiger Woods could never be caught. That all changed on August 16, 2009, at Hazeltine National Golf Club in Minnesota. On that Sunday afternoon, the golf world watched as Y.E. Yang exposed Tiger’s athletic mortality. For the first time in a meaningful golf event, Tiger was tracked down and humanized. Things haven’t really been the same for him since then.
The day after Thanksgiving is a day for relaxation and decompressing from the pounds of turkey and trimmings that have been ingested during the prior evening’s festivities. With tryptophan still in the veins, the nation woke up to some strange news coming out of Florida. Tiger Woods seriously injured in a motor vehicle accident. My immediate thoughts were sadness and slight panic. How bad are these injuries? Is it career threatening? Will the sports world be robbed of watching golf’s most talented jewel ever play again?
As the day wore on, more details emerged. Tiger wasn’t that seriously hurt. It was a one car accident that occurred between 2 and 3 a.m. Now the questions changed. Was Tiger driving drunk? What in the world was he doing driving anywhere at 2 a.m. on Thanksgiving night with his family at home? I knew there was something that didn’t smell right, but I could never have imagined the twists and turns this story would take. While many could conceive that Tiger’s sainthood had always been aggrandized, this fall from grace is truly astonishing.
I am not as concerned about the lurid details that comprise Tiger’s trysts. I will defer to TMZ, Access Hollywood, and the myriad of other tabloids and news organizations that track all of Tiger and Elin’s moves. The most interesting angles for me to examine is why Tiger did this, and why is he being castigated more then his many predecessors who have engaged in nearly the exact same behavior.
Athletes, entertainers, and celebrities cheat on their wives. This should not be a novel concept. While many people engage in marital infidelity, the rate at which professional athletes do is exponential compared to regular people. Why? Opportunity and temptation. Professional athletes (especially in the stratosphere of Tiger Woods) are presented with enticing options that Joe Six-Pack could only dream about. Guys like Tiger are presented with temptations that would truly test the most honest of men. In addition, professional athletes are jet setters. They are traveling at least a quarter of the time, if not much more. They are away from home and their spouses.
The American public largely has their head in the sand when it comes to their sport stars perceived marital sainthood. While people know that athletes probably cheat on their wives more then average people, the public’s knowledge of the extent of the culture of infidelity is shockingly ostrich-esque. It is largely an accepted practice in some professional team sports. They educate players at rookie seminars and symposiums about how to prioritize things in your life. Included on the list with eating healthy, money, family, and your chosen sport, is how to manage your outside interests (i.e. women on the side). If the American public understood the culture of infidelity that permeates professional sports, then this Tiger situation would not be quite as big a deal (or at least shocking).
In my banter with friends and colleagues, I have been guided to ruminate over some very important topics that surround Tiger’s current predicament. One important question brought up by my radio co-host is to examine why Tiger is being berated so heavily for behavior that is similar to many of his predecessors including a luminary such as Michael Jordan. For one, I agree with the notion that Jordan was more insulated by nature of playing a team sport. Not only did he have guys like Scottie Pippen, Steve Kerr, and B.J. Armstrong to help him on the court, but he had teammates to help cover for his indiscretions off the court. There is a certain safe haven (even for the biggest of stars) when they are part of a cast or team. You are not completely exposed like a golf or tennis star who is devoid of teammates to help deflect some of the unwanted attention.
In addition, the media has changed a lot even in the past 15 years since Jordan’s prime. We now live in the “TMZ” era. We are a society of sensationalism. As a student of history, I remember learning about the so-called “yellow journalism” that characterized the American Gilded Age of the late nineteenth century. The legendary showdown between William Randolph Hearst’s New York Journal and Joseph Pulitzer’s New York World spawned a sensationalism of the news cycle in order to spike circulation. The ethos of that era of media seems to be back in vogue.
I maintain that Jordan is lucky that his prime was in the 90’s and not today. While his gambling predilections are renowned, his womanizing was largely a well kept secret until after his career. This was principally for two reasons. The first is that the media was slightly less frenzied 15 years ago then today. Also, Jordan’s relationship with the media during his career was better then Tiger’s is today (even before this scandal). Jordan had an implicit agreement with the media. He would be open enough with them so they could do their job, and in turn the media would turn a blind eye toward at least the most damaging of his indiscretions (his prolific ability to attract and entertain women). To borrow the perfect term from my radio co-host, his relationship with the media during his prime was “Kennedy-esque.”
So where did Tiger go wrong? What makes him the scapegoat for all athletes who cheat on their wives? I think the only way to grapple with these questions is to look at the individual and his life leading up to this juncture. Tiger has had a fairly comfortable life up to now. While certainly I don’t want to minimize the inherent hurdles of growing up as a multi-racial youth in America, as well as the demands of a seemingly heavy-handed father, Tiger has had it pretty good up to now. He knew that he was put on this Earth to play golf. He was drilled in this craft from his nascent stages.
Tiger is a golf deity. He has been so since he picked up a club. His supernatural skills has led him to have a sense of entitlement that even the greatest of athletes rarely feel. While Tiger obviously likes to get down with women from all walks of life, I think his habitual cheating has more to do with power then pure sex. While he seemingly has traded a beautiful Swedish wife away for a dozen or so average looking alleged floozies, he didn’t do so simply because of a lack of impulse control.
For a man whose shot selection is so precise on the course, his wanton carelessness off the course is what is truly lurid and shocking. I may be giving the golfing legend too much credit, but it seems too easy to explain away his prolific philandering by claiming that he is simply a sex addict. That is a cop out. He knew what he was engaging in and he enjoyed the hunt every bit as much as he does chasing down the Phil Mickelson’s of the world on the back nine of a major on a Sunday. If it was simply about sex, he would have engaged solely in a series of Chamberlain-esqe one night stands. Tiger’s behavior is different. It was much more calculated. He had ongoing relationships with these different women for years. He did this because he felt omnipotent.
Tiger’s mortality has now been fully exposed both on the course and off since August. His sense of entitlement and power in his personal life has completely been eroded. His sponsors are fleeing him and his life is crumbling before the entire world. How he responds will be fascinating. Will he resurrect himself with the strong will that has characterized and led to his accomplishments on the greens? Or will he continue to crumble like a house of cards now that his power has largely been stripped?
America (and the world to some extent) loves a comeback story. He will eventually be embraced again if he can show some humility and persona which is what he has failed to show throughout his career and is one of the reasons the media has been so quick to castigate him under this current climate. Tiger has been caught by the tail. Forget being in a bunker in a major playoff. If he can escape this, it will be the greatest up and down of his career.
