2009 US Open Preview: The Two Weeks Ahead in the Big Apple August 29, 2009
Posted by Neil in : Uncategorized , 3comments 
Two of the greatest weeks in the tennis world get underway on Monday in Flushing Meadows. The men’s draw is littered with intriguing storylines that even Quentin Tarantino would froth at the mouth to get his hands on. Roger Federer comes back to New York on top of the tennis world both currently and historically having won the French Open and Wimbledon this summer to complete the career Grand Slam (in Paris) and pass Pete Sampras as the all-time king of men’s tennis (in London). Having attained these lofty goals, the Swiss Maestro who has regained the #1 ranking, proved that his sperm is every bit as lethal as his forehand when his new wife Mirka gave birth to twin girls. Now, Roger comes to the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center with the opportunity to win his 6th consecutive US Open title.
Ever since their meeting in Madrid in which Federer topped Rafael Nadal on clay, the two beacons of men’s tennis have been like two ships passing in the blustery night. Federer went on to win 2 majors and reclaim the #1 ranking since that meeting while Nadal has fallen on hard times. Months earlier in Melbourne, Rafa stood on top of the men’s game by defeating and most importantly demoralizing Roger in a 5 set final Down Under in which Federer wilted in the final set. Nadal having taken the title in Australia held 3 of the 4 majors and a stranglehold on the #1 ranking (and on Federer’s confidence). However, since losing to Roger in Madrid, Rafa has been the Humpty Dumpty of men’s tennis. He was slowed by his knee injury in Paris and lost for the first time there by falling to the big-hitting Swede Robin Soderling in the 4th round. Equally as disappointing, Nadal was forced to pull out of Wimbledon and therefore was not not able to defend his crown. He came back in Montreal and played uninspired tennis in a quarterfinal loss to Del Potro and then had a nice run in Cincinnati before getting beaten by Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. While Nadal has played decent on the hard courts in his 2 tournaments this month, he enters the Open with a lot more questions then answers. Can he physically survive 7 matches on the grueling hard courts? Is he playing well enough to get past a brutal early draw? Even if fully healthy and fit, can he win this tournament anyway after never having made the finals?
While Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro are certainly capable of reaching the final Sunday in New York, the two other big stories revolve around the Andy’s. With Nadal’s disappearing act due to his knee injury, Andy Murray capitalized and has taken over the #2 ranking heading into his favorite major. Last year’s finalist (having beaten Nadal in the semis) has been solid this year in the majors, but not outstanding. He was dismissed by Verdasco Down Under, then lost to Gonzo at the French when he had an excellent opportunity to reach the final after Nadal had went down. At Wimbledon, he played perhaps the biggest match of his career to date against Roddick. The American Andy rose to the occasion and disappointed the British Empire by dispatching Murray in the semis. Now, Murray finds himself as the clear favorite to reach the finals once again in the Big Apple. However, he too has a draw littered with early landmines.
America’s only hope at winning this title for the forseeable future is Andy Roddick. He is the last man not named Roger Federer to win the title (boy, does his win in 2003 seem like a long time ago). Having been pushed and mentored by Larry Stefanki this season, Roddick is playing the best tennis of his career. He has played well in each of the 2009 Slams having attained recent ownage over Novak Djokovic to become the de facto #4 in the world (even if the rankings don’t reflect the change). America’s Andy excelled Down Under defeating Djokovic en route to the semis, attained a career best 4th round result in Paris before falling to the mercurial Monfils, and then lost one of the most epic matches in tennis history at Wimbledon in the final to Roger. The Austin native should be ready for a big run in NYC despite a summer hard court season that has not seen him win a title with 2 close losses to Del Potro in the final of Washington and semifinal of Montreal, and then a disappointing early exit to countrymen Sam Querrey in Cincy.
The draw for this year’s Open is as juicy as ever, here is a guide and my prognostications:
Top Half
First Quarter:
A dream draw for Roger. The GOAT (Greatest of All Time) has a perfect draw to ease himself into his familiar surroundings in the Big Apple. He will be able to rest peacefully at night on his RF crested pillows at the Carlysle Hotel as he will not be challenged until the semis. Watch for a 3rd round matchup with #31 seed and former US Open champ and world #1 Lleyton Hewitt to maybe go 4 sets, however the Aussie has proven that even at his best he was never able to push Roger in New York. Remember the bagels that Roger served him in a US Open final a few years ago? Also, a possible Federer-Blake 4th round match looms, however that match will be more pre-match media puffery then substance. #21 seed Blake has fallen on hard times this year, and if he somehow makes it to Roger in the 4th round, he will be properly dismantled by Federer.
Roger’s quarterfinal opponent should be the winner of a juicy 3rd round encounter between #12 Robin Soderling (who lost to Roger at the French and at Wimbledon) and #22 seed Sam Querrey. The American has played great ball this summer having won LA, and beaten Andy Roddick for the first time in his career in Cincy. Usually an American not named Andy makes a run to the US Open quarterfinals in most years (see Mardy Fish last year and James Blake on many occasions this decade), and in 2009 that man will be Querrey. Look for the lanky Californian to dispatch a qualifier in Round 1, Dudi Sela in Round 2, Soderling in Round 3, and then either #8 Davydenko, #26 Mathieu or Youzhny in the 4th round as he will advance to a quarterfinal againat the GOAT. In the QF, Querrey will steal a set in a tiebreak, but will lose to Federer in 4.
Second Quarter:
This to me is the most intriguing quarter of the draw. On first glance, we are headed toward a Roddick-Djokovic quarterfinal. The two met in this round last year in New York and Djokovic prevailed after a match that was littered with mockery and bad blood and then some interesting post-match statements (including on-court ones from Novak). While Novak had a nice run to the final of Cincy dispatching Rafa along the way, I don’t like the way he has looked on court this year. He struggles with muggy conditions which could be an issue in New York (especially based on the anticipated weather during the first week), and he has looked tired throughout the year (especially in best of five matches). He went out listlessly to Roddick Down Under in the quarters (he retired), to Kohlschreiber in Paris in the 3rd round, and to Haas in the quarters on the lawns in England. While Novak has the game to make a deep run at Flushing Meadows (see his finalist appearance a few years ago), I don’t think he will physically sustain a long run. Look for him to lose to either #29 Igor Andreev in Round 3 or to #15 Radek Stepanek or unseeded surprise Argentine Leonardo Mayer in the 4th Round.
On the other half of this second quarter, Andy Roddick also has some major hurdles to overcome. However, he has worked so hard this year and will be rewarded by getting out of this quarter and meeting Roger in a dream semifinal on Super Saturday. He will get past a tough draw that includes the struggling yet dangerous Dmitry Tursunov in Round 2, the big-serving Amercian John Isner in Round 3, either #20 Tommy Haas or #10 Fernando Verdasco in Round 4, and then possibly #15 Stepanek in the quarters.
In the semis, Roddick will have a chance to put that Wimbledon disappointment behind him by beating Federer. However, he will not be up to the task. Federer is playing some of the most brillant ball of his career at this point which is a manifestation of the confidence he garnered having won the French title. Roddick will serve well and push Federer, however Roger will advance to the final in 5 delicious sets.
Bottom Half:
3rd Quarter:
This is the most difficult quarter to predict because the top 2 players in this section have major warts heading into the event. This should be Rafa’s section to dominate, however the world #3 is not in great form (who blames him after missing most of the summer) and has not played well in NYC anyway. Add a tough draw to that concoction and you have the recipe for an early round ouster. The other highly ranked player in this quarter is #7 Joe-Willy Tsonga. He has been one of the biggest enigmas on Tour this year. He is capable of beating anybody and then losing to anyone as well. See his defeat of #1 Federer coming back from 5-1 down in the 3rd in the quarters of Montreal and then losing in his first match in Cincy. He has a stated affinity for playing in places where French is spoken (see success in Montreal and disappointment in Cincy). While New York has plenty of French nationals as inhabitants, Tsonga may not like the native tongue and therefore is prone to an early exit.
I like a minor surprise to come out of this quarter and reach the semis. I think #7 Tsonga will lose to either former US Open quarterfinalist Jarkko Nieminen in Round 2 or unseeded countrymen Julien Benneteau in Round 3. This opens the door for either #17 seed Tomas Berdych or #11 seed Fernando Gonzalez to get through this section. These two will meet in the 3rd round with the winner getting through to the semis. If I have to pick today, I like Berdych to finally make a long awaited deep run in a major and get to the semis. However, always be wary of Gonzo. He goes away throughout much of the year but always finds himself playing in the second week of the majors. However, I like the Czech Berdych to get through this section and not have to beat Rafa to make the semis.
So what about Nadal? He has a brutal 1st round against the much maligned Frenchman Richard Gasquet. This is a match that Nadal could very well lose. Gasquet will win this match if he is able to keep his mental wits about him. It could be a shocking 1st round exit for Nadal. If Rafa is able to escape he will have to face the tricky veteran German Nicholas Kiefer in the 2nd round. This will be dangerous as well for Rafa. I think there is at least a 50% chance that Nadal loses one of these matches. If he is able to survive those first two rounds then he could pick up momentum and does have a fairly easy draw to the quarters. I just don’t think he will play well enough to get there. I like Berdych over an unseeded quarterfinal opponent (watch for either Evgeny Korolev or Jose Acasuso to be the surprise).
4th Quarter:
This is Andy Murray’s half of the draw to lose. While I fully expect Andy to navigate this half of the draw, it is littered with landmines. This is the pound for pound best quarter of the draw. I just think Murray is ready to step forward and handle it. Murray starts off with Latvian Ernests Gulbis in a tasty 1st round match. None of the top guys want to see Gulbis in their draw (see his 2nd round night match against Roddick last year as a prime example). Gulbis has all the tools, yet has struggled this season. When you are not playing your best, Murray is the last guy you want to play. Murray will take him out in 4.
The Scot will breeze past Round 2 (his only breather) and then has dangerous matches the rest of the fortnight. He could have to face #27 Karlovic in Round 3 and then #16 Cilic in Round 4. Murray is too wily for these two and will be tested by one or both and move on. Then he faces his toughest test on this half of the draw #6 Del Potro. I like Del Potro to get through to the quarters although he will face a fun test from unseeded Marat Safin in Round 2 (that is if Safin can navigate his way past tricky Austrian lefty Jurgen Melzer in Round 1). The former world #1 and Open champ will not go away easy in what will be his final Grand Slam match, however Del Potro is just too good for the handsome Russian at this time of their careers and the Argentine will advance in 5 sets that last deep into the Queens night. Del Potro will then impose his way to a quarterfinal showdown with Murray. I like Del Potro to take a 2 sets to 1 lead in that quarterfinal, however I have serious doubts about Juan Martin’s fitness and no questions about Murray’s any longer, and thus I like Murray in a rousing 5 set comeback. He will dispatch Berdych or whatever fodder awaits him on Super Saturday and then will take on either Andy Roddick or most likely Roger in the final.
Final:
The top 2 players in the world will battle in the final Grand Slam match of 2009 in what will be a rematch of their final last year. In that match, Murray seemed overwhelmed by the occasion and the play of Federer. This will not be the case if they meet again in two weeks. Murray is confident that he can and should beat Roger on hard courts. However, much like their match last week in Cincy, Roger is just playing too well at this point. I like Federer to be pushed for 4 sets but no more by the Scot. Roger wraps up the most glorious year of his career by taking home his 6th straight US Open title. This will go down as one of the best years in tennis history and certainly the most memorable of Roger’s life. Getting married, first children, 3 Slams, the career Slam, and becoming the GOAT. It will be a historic two weeks in Flushing. Buckle up for the ride!
Diseased Crab(apple)tree Infests 49ers August 8, 2009
Posted by Neil in : Uncategorized , 2comments
Crabapple trees when planted have the potential to be beautiful and bountiful. The 49ers brass felt the same about #10 overall pick Michael Crabtree when he fell into their laps in April’s draft. They and the entire 49er fan base were enamored with the potential for their future superstar WR. Before he has ever stepped on an NFL field, comparisons were being made to former legendary 49er wide receivers, and Crabtree was hailed as an important cog (along with Frank Gore) in getting the Niners offense back to respectability and a potential playoff birth either this season or next.
Crabtree looks great on paper. He is statuesque, has very good hands, and special playmaking abilities. His one knock (at least playing wise) is that he played in Mike Leach’s unique system at Texas Tech that undoubtedly provides for its stars to have inflated numbers. However, Crabtree certainly has transferable skills that should make him a success on NFL Sundays.
However, will his professional gridiron success take place in San Francisco (or Santa Clara perhaps some day)? There are two main potential reasons why 9 teams passed on Crabtree in April’s draft. Either they didn’t need or want a wide receiver (at least enough to take one that early in the draft), or they were scared off by the diva personality that Crabtree has become known for before ever getting paid (that we know about) for catching a pass. A third reason applies only to the Raiders. Al Davis is senile. That is the only reason anyone would take Darrius Heyward-Bey at #7 (or in the top 20 at all for that matter) over Crabtree. The Bay Area is getting to witness firsthand why many teams may have shied away from taking Crabtree. His “advisors” and handlers are not giving him good advice at all and he has an inflated sense of self-worth. He wants to be paid like a top 5 pick when he went #10. His relative and advisor has recklessly thrown out that Crabtree would be prepared to sit out this season and re-enter the NFL Draft next April. That is a great idea. Just ask Mike Williams of USC and Maurice Clarett of Ohio State what a year off from football before entering the NFL does to erode your skills and increase your waistline.
The bad advice that Crabtree must be receiving from those around him has been a pandemic in sports and entertainment in the last few years. We have seen prominent figures such as LeBron and Michael Jackson over the past few months take major hits because of the “yes-men” culture of the “friends” and “advisors” they have around them. These high-profile individuals have people around them that are scared of losing their meal ticket by ever alienating the celebrity they are close to. This has contributed to some bad decision-making by LBJ and is one of the reasons (if not the main one) that Michael Jackson is no longer with us. People can’t say no to celebrities and really set them straight, because anyone who tries runs the risk of being fired or removed from the inner circle. Instead, the “hangers on” either pump the celebrity up full of even more confidence and inflated self-worth, or in Jackson’s case pumped him up with whatever drugs he desired.
I would hope for Crabtree’s sake that he is merely getting some bad advice from those around him rather then the alternative that he is actually as narcissistic as he is portraying himself to be. He has done nothing on an NFL gridiron. He is being offered good money. Most reports have him being offered somewhere north of $16 million in guaranteed money. He has now held out for almost two weeks. Meanwhile, the 49ers (who drafted him because they lacked any playmaking threat at the position) have lost free agent pickup Brandon Jones for two months. They now have nobody to stretch the field (small apologies to Josh Morgan who is having a good camp, but will never have the skills of Crabtree). Isaac Bruce is having a great camp by all accounts, but he is geriatric and is a solid possession wide receiver and safety valve for Shaun Hill (or Alex Smith). This 49ers team needs a playmaker at the wideout position. Crabtree was drafted to be that guy.
Crabapple trees can produce in great quantity and can look beautiful while doing so. However, they are known as being disease prone. They are susceptible principally to the following four diseases: Scab (causes the foliage to yellow and drop and the fruit to have black and brown spots), Ceder Apple Rust (rust spots on foliage, and tree can become stunted), Mildew (occurs when air circulation is poor), and Fireblight (causes significant damage to the tree causing stems to be blackened and leaves to decline).
The 49ers Crabtree is showing significant signs of disease that may have a deleterious infestational effect on the 49ers 2009 season and years to come. After all, if you miss on a Top 10 pick, that can set you back years. The longer Crabtree holds out the more significant problems the 49ers offense will continue to suffer from football’s version of Scab (passes will continue to drop and the offense will continue to produce a spotty product), Cedar Apple Rust (offense will continue to be stunted as it has for many years now), Mildew (quality of their passing game’s circulation will be quite poor resulting in lack of productivity), and Fireblight (significant damage to entire team causing playoff hopes to disappear and perhaps fan support to decline).
I hope for 49ers fans that Michael Crabtree and his agent are just involved in intense negotiations with the 49ers brass and that a deal is imminent. He needs to get into camp and prepare to be a force on this year’s team. He could be the difference between the 7-9 or 8-8 mediocrity that most predict for this year’s squad and getting to 9 or 10 wins and a much anticipated playoff birth. However, even if he signs today, we have seen nothing but troubling things from Crabtree since he was drafted. However, we have seen this type of diva receiver before. After all, this is where T.O. spawned his outlandish career. I have one piece of advice for 49ers fans as they watch Crabtree in future years (if he does eventually sign). Get your popcorn ready.
