Golden Nuggets: Saints to March on San Francisco… October 29, 2007
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[Quick syndication note: this is the 9th of several weekly installments that I’m contributing to Fantasy Insights, throughout the NFL Season. A big thank you to Shawn McCullough for allowing us to syndicate to our site.]
As I’m starting the writing of this column on Thursday afternoon, comfortably stationed at a downtown Palo Alto Cafe, Phil Helmuth is sitting at the table beside me, fast-talking (nothing new there) on his cell phone, and working a Word document on his laptop. Who even thought that such legendary Poker gods had to get to the brass tax of typing anything himself anymore? Where’s the assistant taking dictation from the Palo Alto resident?
The loud-mouthed poker brat seems entrenched in his work; and into working his phone correspondent the way he would somebody sitting across the poker felt from him. I eavesdrop discreetly in and out of his telephone conversation. He utters something about getting floor seats. I’m guessing he’s talking about garnering himself a couple of prized spots for an upcoming NBA regular season opener next week; most likely from either the suddenly-trendy Warriors, or the turbulent Tinsel Town Lakers. There’s nothing silent or remotely calm about the man. He gesticulates uncomfortably in his seat, talking in short caffeine-induced bursts. I can’t bare at the thought of him as an overactive, ADD-prone young child. The unabashed, attention-craved Phillip boasts, “You know the ESPN cameras will be there, trying to get a shot of me” “1750 per seat…” (disclaimer: quotes may not be exact, as they are from memory). To him, a couple of seats courtside at the Staple Center is a drop in the bucket; less than a foursome of yellow chips he regularly throws around at the World Series of Poker. Oh, the life of a poker star… A true Silicon Valley story: Phil strikes it rich, as a young man, by selling his software company, and then embarks on the professional poker tour full-time. But I digress…
The trip to the Big Apple was not as fruitful as one might have imagined. Taking a bite out of that forbidden fruit has certainly wreaked havoc with Adam and Eve. How could we expect the Gold Miners to go into the Meadowlands and come out of it with a positive outcome? What was predicted by every NFL pundit came to fruition. Giant(s) pass-rushers Umenyiora and Strahan had a great game in raising hell for Dilfer and company. The Niners were left stomaching another tough loss; and flying back to a Bay Area that has grown impatient with their offensive woes.
The Saints come marching into San Francisco (you knew I was going to use it) on Sunday; leaving a town affected by flood, to one flooded with gripes about their professional team’s offensive ineptitude. Alert the press: Alex Smith is making his much-anticipated return his week, from a separated shoulder. Speaking of which, you can pretty much split the nation of Faithful between those who have had separation anxiety from the young protégé and those that believe that he won’t be able to bring forth the required solutions to San Francisco’s offensive muck (yours truly belonging to the latter). Having said that, this is a match-up of underperforming 2-4 teams, hoping to salvage their seasons. Having essentially retained the same team from last year—with its slew of offensive weapons and ball-hawking defense—the young Saints were to grow from their trip to the NFC Championship game a year ago and were a prominent pre-season pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year. San Francisco, having vastly improved its defense through choice picks in the Draft and savvy off-season signings, was the sexy pick to take the NFC West. Having said that, in a conference mired in mediocrity and parity, both franchises are still looking to improve upon their slow starts and potentially make a run at the post season.
When analyzing this match-up, an old quote pops in my head, “sometimes the best defense is a good offense”. Whether it be for foreign policy (as the Bush administration has tried to have us believe), litigation, press relations, or football, that saying seems to have some validity. When it comes to the 49ers it could be more true. Their defense is much better than the stats indicate. But without the adequate “run support”, they end up relinquishing the end zone in the latter stage of games. Until San Francisco starts showing even mediocre offensive output, I’m going to have a hard time picking them. New Orleans ends up scoring more than San Francisco, in a tightly contested battle: Saints 20 – 49ers 16.
INJURIES
1) Alex Smith: listed as “Probable”
It’s official: the San Jose Mercury News reports that Alex Smith is returning to his starting role, as the Niners host the Saints on Sunday. Whether he’s the savior to San Francisco’s offense, remains to be seen….
2) Frank Gore: listed as “Probable”
The Niner workhorse back returned to limited practice on Thursday after skipping Wednesday’s workout due to a sprained ankle (the San Jose Mercury News reports).
3) Jonas Jennings: listed as “Doubtful”
The latest on the Niner left tackle is that his ankle had kept him out of practice this Thursday. The odds are long for him to play on Sunday against the Saints (the Santa Rose Press Democrat reports). Smith will have to watch his backside even more closely, without his main protector in the ball game…
4) Darrell Jackson: listed as “Doubtful”
Jackson was not able to practice on Thursday due to a quadriceps injury. He is not expected to play on Sunday (the Santa Rose Press Democrat reports). This will most certainly thrust Lelie in the starting role…
QUARTERBACKS
Alex Smith: Smith takes over the controls of the Niner offense from his mentor Trent Dilfer. Some believe that he will bring a little pep to the offensive step; with his added mobility and alleged talent, but if you’ve read this column or heard my radio show in the past, you know that I completely disagree with that assessment. Smith will be putting up Dilfer-like numbers in his return. The Aints have been struggling all season, particularly against the pass where they are 27th in the league allowing an average of 244 yards/game through the air. But will be more than happy to oblige in following the standard defensive game plan against the 49ers: stack the line of scrimmage and put the game in the opposing quarterback’s hands whomever he is… It could be argued that this is one of the most important games in his young career. He needs to re-establish himself and show that this is his team, and that he belongs as a consistent starter in the National Football League. But when pressed with the game in his hands, though, he will look rusty and flustered….
Week 8 Prediction: 190 yards, 1 INT, 20 yards scampering
RUNNINGBACKS
Frank Gore: Gore is coming off an ankle sprain, which may limit him in breaking tackles and making people miss in the open field. Watch for him to have a yeoman’s day, with an average yard/rush that is slightly under his norm.
Week 8 Prediction: 30 carries for 90 yards & 1 TD rushing, 20 yards receiving
WIDE RECEIVERS
Arnaz Battle: Battle will be counted on even more heavily in Jackson’s absence. If his quarterback is able to deliver him the ball (and that’s a big “if”), watch for a decent day at the office for Arnaz…
Week 8 Prediction: 4 receptions, 60 yards
Ashley Lelie: I’ve been stubbornly keeping his personal box score empty, as he had shown nothing. But if he wants to be back with this team next year—or even in the league for that matter, he needs to step up and deliver a little something this week, with Mr. Jackson out…
Week 8 Prediction: 2 receptions, 25 total yards
Bryan Gilmore: Making a definite appearance, as a 3rd option for Smith, Gilmore promises to be an active part of the offense on Sunday. His explosiveness has been shown in his two receptions this season—one for 42 yards against Baltimore, and one for 20 yards against the G-men last week. His quality as being a deep threat will be shown off against the Saints…
Week 8 Prediction: 2 receptions, 40 yards
TIGHT ENDS
Vernon Davis: Coming off injury, Davis got the second most touches last week when it comes to receptions. Expect him to take a prominent part in Sunday’s game plan, as Smith’s security blanket in dire times…
Week 8 Prediction: 4 reception, 40 yards
PLACE KICKER
Joe Nedney: Nedney won’t be lacking opportunity as the Saints haven’t been stellar defensively this Season. Despite the “odd” weather at Monster Park, watch for him to nail every single one of this make-able kicks…
Week 8 Prediction: 2 FGs from between 40 and 50 yards away & 1 from Union Square (50+ yards).
DEFENSE
49ers Defense: We’re starting to know that the 49er defense has been very Atlas-like throughout the season: carrying the entire team on its back, through its youthful, tireless, sure-tackling ways. So much so, that we’re starting to wonder if they haven’t completely lost faith in their counterparts on the other side of the pigskin. But whom are they facing, this week, in terms of offense? One of the big story lines for this Saints this season, has been the loss of their workhorse running back to a season-ending knee injury (been a big story for yours truly—fantasy-wise—as I had picked him as my second round selection). With Deuce McAllister out of the starting lineup for the tough carries, they’re left with the home run hitter in Bush doing a lot of the dirty work. The question for Reggie throughout his short NFL career is: could the small-statured back take a season’s worth of NFL quality hits and keep on trucking (no reference to former beer trucker turned Saint, turned Niner Michael Lewis)? Thus far, in a more conventional running back’s role, the answer has been “no” (Although that clearly hasn’t been Reggie’s response to Kardashian’s advances).
San Francisco feels better equipped to handle Bush, tells us the San Francisco Chronicle. Last year, Reggie exploded for 3 TDs in a 34-10 drubbing of the 49ers at the Superdome. This year, though, Bush has been pedestrian: 298 yards rushing (ranking him 30th in the league), on an unspectacular 3.5 yards/carry average. Watch for San Francisco to clamp down on him considerably on Sunday. Brees will have to look elsewhere, for offensive fireworks. And you’ll continue to look elsewhere for a top defense fantasy-wise. San Francisco is very decent; but they are—amongst other things—spending too much time on the field of play…
We’ll see you next week, as we continue to pan for gold within the 49ers roster…
So It All Comes Down to This October 24, 2007
Posted by Matt in : Uncategorized , 2comments
As the resident baseball expert (sans the white hair), I feel it’s my duty to make a prediction for the World Series. I’d love to be doing this on-air, but due to my current location being closer to the domes in which Dasiuke Matsuzaka and Kaz Matsui first played professional ball than Fenway or Coors field I figure the blog is the best way to go. With that, here’s the breakdown Dr. Jack style:
Batting: Both of these teams can put up runs in the blink of an eye. And with the locations for this series being Fenway and Coors field, they probably will. The biggest difference in the two lineups is that the Rockies have their speed at the top while the Sox have theirs at the bottom. I think the difference will be if Pedroia and Youkilis continue to be hot while Matsui and Tavares (a combined .200 BA in the NLCS) stay cold. The big boys in the middle of the lineup are going to do their thing, so it’s a question of who sets the table for them. Edge: Red Sox
Pitching: Short of Josh Beckett, the Red Sox starting pitching was anything but stellar in the ALCS. While the Rockies have a very young, but well rounded staff with Francis, Jimenez, and Fogg starting the first three games. Game four is a coin flip with Aaron Cook having not pitched since August 10th vs the rookie Jon Lester. While it would make an amazing story to have Lester, one year removed from being diagnosed with cancer, get the win in a clinching game four, I don’t see it happening. I think the overall strength of the Rockies is more powerful that Josh Beckett twice in a seven game series. Plus, Eric Gagne continues to be on the Red Sox postseason roster to the confusion of everyone in New England. Edge: Rockies
Defense: This isn’t even a question. One team led the league in almost every defensive metric, while the other still has Julio Lugo at short and Manny Ramirez in left field. Edge: Rockies
Coaching: Clint Hurdle has done a terrific job with his team in the past few weeks. Hell, it’s kind of hard to fault any manager who has won 21 of his last 22 games. But he still hasn’t had to make a difficult decision in these playoffs. Remember, he was one lucky call at home plate away from not even making it to the NLDS. In the other dugout, Terry Francona has now proven that he knows exactly what buttons to push to keep the team lose and still perform at a very high caliber. Despite his not-so-brilliant move to start Wakefield in game four of the ALCS, he still got the job done. I give the edge to the manager whose proven he can work at this stage. Edge: Red Sox
Intangibles: Where’s Jeter when you need him? Right now the Rockies are on one of the most impressive winnings streaks in the history of baseball. 21-1 in their last 22 and 7-0 in the playoffs. But you’ve got to believe that having over a week off will hurt your team. Meanwhile the Red Sox should be riding high after overcoming their second 3-1 deficit in the ALCS in the past four years (the other was from 3-0). They still managed to have their pitching rotation set up for this series and they’re morale has got to be (ready for the pun?) a mile high. Edge: Red Sox
Parting thoughts: In my mind this series comes down to the first game. If Josh Beckett takes care of business and the Sox can hand the Rockies their first defeat of the postseason, the Sox will wear down the Rockies and win the series. If Beckett loses, everything turns in the Rockies favor.
Prediction: I picked them to go all the way before the playoffs started, so I can’t change now. Rockies
Golden Nuggets: Standing at the Feet of Giants… October 22, 2007
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[Quick syndication note: this is the 8th of several weekly installments that I’m contributing to Fantasy Insights, throughout the NFL Season. A big thank you to Shawn McCullough for allowing us to syndicate to our site.]
It is a secret to no single living/breathing person that the 49ers have struggled in their pursuit at hitting pay dirt. You would think that the Gold Miners, with their rich offensive tradition would strike gold, once every Blue Moon (my respects to the real #81 in New England, for his continued stellar play, in redefining the receiver position) by touching down in the end zone. The problem is that very few protagonists from those Golden years have remained with San Francisco. Bill Walsh—who grandfathered offensive coaches, the West Coast attack, and the Niners dynasty—has left us all. The silver-tongued Carmen Policy is long gone from his front office role with San Francisco. Even the beloved, spend-happy Eddie D has been replaced by his penny-pinching sister and a doctor that hasn’t shown a pulse when it comes to pigskin
know-how… All we’re left with, as Faithful, is a sideline-strutting, Reebok suit wearing leader whose idea of exciting offense is a hard-fought 3 yard gain, as opposed to the deft choreographed ballet of yesteryear. Let’s all remember that the charismatic Mike Nolan once emanated from an assistantship under Brian Billick with Baltimore. Billick, once known as an offensive wiz in Minnesota, took Darwin very seriously and adapted like a chameleon to his dearth of talent on offense with the Ravens. Retracing those coaching roots only helps us in realizing that Nolan has been as tight as a drum when putting a game plan together. Who can blame the guy, having seen his pedigree? The offense has allegedly reverted back to basics: nuts, bolts, and a large dose of fundamentals. The titillating cuteness has left us. The glitz, artistry, and creativity of the West Coast have all but evaporated in favor of the stern, obtuse mentality of a Pennsylvania town. Dare I say that San Francisco has become blue-collar?
The bye week has allowed for several phenomena to come into play. Mike Nolan swiftly scheduled emergency offensive meetings in place of a regular practice routine during the off-week. The Coach, then proceeds, to order a media blackout from both players and staff; accusing the press of “bringing them down”… Oh, Coach, if only the (electronic) pen was that potent of a weapon… Unfortunately you’ve got nothing but yourself and your coaching staff to look at, as culprits for your offensive ugliness…
Before I continue, I’d like to add that my observations this week, will be more based on 1st hand observation than ever before. My good friend Ryan Leong took me by the hand this week and led me to the 49ers Santa Clara training facility: “Stalag 49”. There, I was able not only speak to both potential starting quarterbacks (although that dilemma seems pretty clear-cut, but more on that later), but also to take stock in the team and its players.
This week, San Francisco travels out to the Big Apple….errr…I mean the Garden State to face off against the newly resuscitated G-men at Jimmy Hoffa’s burial grounds. The Arm Pit of America will host the NFL’s most odorous offense in San Francisco, against what much stronger defensive squad for the Giants in recent weeks. Bring your deodorants as this one will be a stinker for San Fran.
As most are, but never really shown to be (even in Jaworski chalk talks), this game is going to be won in the trenches. Expect the Giants defense to put the clamps on Gore and force the game onto Dilfer’s arm. Watch for Trent to get a taste for the mineral composition of the Meadowlands sod, as he’ll be spending plenty of time on the ground, eating dirt. The two bandit culprits? None other than two of the most feared pass-rushers in the NFL in Umenyiora and Strahan coming off the outside. Elijah will make enough plays to Burress and Shockey in the first quarter to distance himself from the 49ers, and allow Jacobs to handle the milking of the clock for most of the second half… Final score, Big Blue fades out Garnet & Gold by the score of 21-10.
INJURIES
1) Alex Smith: listed as “Probable”
Alex Smith finally returned to practice on Thursday and participated in most drills while wearing pads. The Associated Press reports that he will be in uniform on Sunday; but will not be the starter. Anyone with half a brain at Stalag 49 yesterday could have come to the same conclusion, seeing each quarterback’s demeanor, when addressing the press. Smith hadn’t taken part in most drills on Wednesday. Better safe on the pine, than sorry with Umenyiora and Strahan desperately wanting hugs every play…
2) Vernon Davis: listed as “Questionable”
Davis had a limited practice session on Wednesday. San Francisco Chronicle reports that he’s due to return from his knee injury this Sunday.
QUARTERBACKS
Trent Dilfer: Dilfer brought “sexy back” for two consecutive plays in San Francisco’s last game; with back-to-back strikes that resulted in a Niner touchdown and had him going completely bonkers. Yesterday, when I asked him what he was going to use as extra motivation against the G-men, he uttered that he didn’t need anything more than he already possesses going into Sunday’s game. Okay, Trent. Why don’t you revert back to your mediocrity when your motivation had run out? Despite what came out of his pie hole, I’m convinced that Trent may be a better QB with a chip on his shoulder. Last week—despite having told the media that he had buried the hatchet—he wanted to stick it to Billick. This week he’s going to have to find some more bulletin board material…
Week 7 Prediction: 175 yards, 2 INT
RUNNINGBACKS
Frank Gore: The defensive game plan against San Francisco could almost be devised and implemented by an elementary school child. Remember those Legos you used to build as a protection to your medieval fortress? Well, instead of stacking small plastic objects, just pile as many men as possible on the line of scrimmage and see what happens… Until a Niner quarterback has the ability to loosen any opposing defense with a few deep pass plays, watch for every D to get 8 or more men in the box. Gore has been suffering from it, all year (averaging only 61.2 yds/game). Look for the trend to continue with that tough and nimble Giant defensive front…
Week 7 Prediction: 20 carries for 72 yards & 1 TD rushing, 20 yards
WIDE RECEIVERS
Let me empathize with you, if you’ve been forced to select a wide receiver from San Francisco. Their production has been meager to say the least… And it doesn’t seem like that will change anytime soon…
Darrell Jackson: His last game, Jackson produced 2 receptions for 6 yards. Extrapolating from that data, and his low season output, I’m forced to proceed with measured expectations going into the game at the Meadowlands…
Week 7 Prediction: 3 receptions, 30 yards
Arnaz Battle: 3 receptions for 36 yards, and the only touchdown for the Niners his last time out. Can he continue and improve on that? Not if Trent can’t get him the ball…
Week 7 Prediction: 3 receptions, 45 yards
Ashley Lelie: Let’s leave his box score in the pure state it has stayed at, all season…
Week 7 Prediction: 0 receptions, 0 total yards
TIGHT ENDS
Vernon Davis: The rust will show on his game after having been out several weeks. It remains to be seen how his knee reacts on the turf in New Jersey.
Week 7 Prediction: 2 reception, 25 yards
PLACE KICKER
Joe Nedney: The resurgent Giant defense will make it tough for the Niners to convert drives into touchdowns. The opportunities Nedney will be given will certainly be from downtown Manhattan. Factor in the temperamental weather, and you’ve got yourself a tough kicking day…
Week 7 Prediction: 1 FG from between 40 and 50 yards away.
DEFENSE
49ers Defense: Stamina and youth are this squad’s main assets. When it comes to creating turnovers or getting sacks, San Francisco still has some work to do, which leaves you with very little, dear Fantasy owner. You tell me, “but the Giants are relatively generous with the pigskin”: a giveaway/takeaway of -3 on total turnovers of 12. Don’t count on it… Pick up a more Fantasy-friendly defense. There should be a few lying around in your league…
We’ll see you next week, as we continue to pan for gold within the 49ers roster…
Golden Nuggets: Bye Bye Bye (Week) October 18, 2007
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[Quick syndication note: this is the 7th of several weekly installments that I’m contributing to Fantasy Insights, throughout the NFL Season. A big thank you to Shawn McCullough for allowing us to syndicate to our site.]
Before I begin, and because it’s a 49er bye week, I thought I’d expound and pontificate on National Football League as an incoherent whole. For the past few weeks, on my radio show—Your Sports NightCap—when bringing on our NFL SuperAnalyst Todd Husak, I introduce him by saying “Former NFL quarterback, joining us now to help us make sense out to the nonsensical that is the National Football League”. Despite the fact that Husak does a great job in undertaking this monumental challenge, the point is that the league is as hard to figure out as it ever has been. There are very few teams that demarcate themselves from the peloton of mediocrity. They stand out like sore thumbs. The Pats and Colts are the true stalwarts. The Cowboys probably sit at #3 in most power rankings despite showing vulnerability in Orchard Park this past Monday, before eeking one out on the leg of Nick Folk. The AFC remains the much stronger conference. It’s an arduous exercise to find a worthy challenger to America’s Team in the NFC… The Pack looked quite vulnerable against a desperate Chicago squad, with Favre tying Blanda’s career interception mark on Sunday Night Football. Who are the other teams that can threaten the crème-de-la-crème in each conference? You’d be hard pressed to find viable candidates. One Sunday, a team looks like a world-beater. The next, they look like they’re totally out of sorts. Getting a decent feel for middle-of-the-pack teams is nearly impossible. This is what parity has brought us in the NFL. Surprises, upsets, and absolute absurdity any given Sunday…
There’s a reason why Nolan canceled some practices early this week, in order to schedule some emergency meetings: to solve San Francisco’s offensive woes. They’ve been more incompetent at their craft than Miss South Carolina was at hers a few months back. You should hear the radio airwaves in the Bay Area. Listeners are calling in en masse for offensive coordinator Jim Hoster’s head. Confidence in starter Alex Smith, has for the most part, been lost by The Faithful. Looking at the offensive statistics and critical play-calling last Sunday certainly backs the general sentiment of malaise amongst Niner fans. A good indicator of offensive efficiency is 3rd down conversion percentage. San Francisco was just 3 of 12 (25%) this past Sunday. The 49ers lost their 3rd straight game—after starting the season 2-0—and in the process failed to compile at least 200 yards in total offense for the 4th time in five games (gained 163 on Sunday). The 49ers lost the time of possession battle (38 to 22mins), and failed to stretch the Ravens defense, which settled with 8 or 9-man fronts in an attempt to stuff Frank Gore and force the game into Dilfer’s hands. Despite all of this, San Francisco’s defense played with more stamina than “Pamela Lee” and holds up for most of the game. Enough to set up a 40-yard drive in the final minutes to tee up Joe Nedney for a 52-yard field goal attempt with 2:37 left. The grizzly professional pulled it wide right. The Ravens were left to run out the clock… Final (baseball) score between Jon Miller’s employers, past and present ;): Baltimore 9, San Francisco 7.
Alex Smith comes back to lead his team to victory with 400 yards passing and 5 TD passes, despite a broken collarbone. And you thought there existed one only one kind of Fantasy ;)…
Slight recommendation: you may want to think about staying away from starting any Niners this week, as they’re taking the week off for their bye. Your reply: “I’ve felt like they’ve taken a bye week all year”. Understood.
INJURIES
1) Alex Smith: listed as “Questionable”
Smith’s prognosis has evolved in recent days, as he starts throwing passes in practice, as he did Wednesday (to injured TE Vernon Davis). On Monday, the Santa Rosa Press Democrat reported that Smith was making “tremendous progress” and could start in Week 7 against the Giants.
2) Vernon Davis: listed as “Questionable”
The Sacramento Bee reports that Vernon Davis is in line to play against the Giants on Oct.21. His knee seems to be making the requisite progress for this to happen.
We’ll see you next week, as we continue to pan for gold within the 49ers roster…
Golden Nuggets: Eating Crow While Hosting the Ravens… October 18, 2007
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[Quick syndication note: this is the 6th of several weekly installments that I’m contributing to Fantasy Insights, throughout the NFL Season. A big thank you to Shawn McCullough for allowing us to syndicate to our site.]
The most disconcerting part about last week’s game was not that the 49ers were shown up, nor was it that several chinks were exposed. The one thing that has been demoralizing for the Faithful has been the way San Francisco laid down. An odd symptom from a Mike Nolan-coached team: the 49ers didn’t look ready to play. A worrisome diagnosis for a team that had the opportunity to climb atop the NFC West with a win over their Pacific Northwest rivals…
Can they rebound this Sunday from such a disappointment without their leader on offense?
The reality check delivered by Seattle for San Francisco will keep them honest and grounded this week, as they host the Baltimore Ravens. The 49er offense was already having issues with Alex Smith. Those that have heard my thoughts on him on my radio show know that I haven’t been the most enthused observer of his play; since he was drafted #1 overall. I thought Trent Dilfer was going to be a breath of fresh air; injecting savoir-faire, maturity, and a new energy into the Niner offensive squad. Here was a man capable of playing within himself, complementing Gore’s stout run game with key third down completions to keep long drives live and move those chains. What we got last Sunday was a stale degrading version of the quarterback that led the Ravens to the SuperBowl in 2000. Despite what added snaps with the 1st team will do, Brian Billick’s familiarity with his former QB will certainly wreak havoc in San Francisco’s passing attack. Although Baltimore’s passing game rank 9th in the NFL—with 237.8 yards generated through the air per game—I still see the Niner pass defense (itself ranked 11th) keep it in check for most of the game. This contest will be won in the trenches, toting the pig. The argument is as simple as this. The Land of Crab Cakes has a top rush defense (ranked 4th, allowing a measly 71 yards per game) and a better running game than the City by The Bay. This game will be a field position and time of possession battle. Baltimore will take it, mostly on McGahee’s ability to tire out the Niners front seven.
Look for a low scoring game, as the Ravens will come into San Francisco and scavenge on the weakening 49er carcass. Baltimore 17, San Fran 10 in a game that will not be as close as the score indicates…
INJURIES
1) Alex Smith: listed as “Out”
Upon further review by Dr. James Andrews, it seems that the consensus diagnosis is a Grade 3 shoulder separation, which is not going to need any surgery. Smith’s status remains uncertain, for upcoming weeks. After having tried to throw on Monday during practice without much success, Alex Smith’s health will be re-evaluated on a weekly basis. Initial reports had him out for 4 to 6 weeks.
2) Vernon Davis: listed as “Out”
The Santa Rosa Press Democrat (as opposed to any newspaper in Silicon Valley, where San Francisco practices), reports that Davis did not practice Thursday, Oct. 4, and remains out for Week 5. The 49ers have a bye week after their game against the Ravens. After those 3 weeks of rest, the Niners are hoping to see Davis recuperated from his knee injury.
QUARTERBACKS
Trent Dilfer: Having shown very little in taking over for Alex Smith (12/33 for 128 yards & 2 INTs), the Niner signal caller had not had many 1st team snaps in practice until this week. Hopefully the added work with the starting unit enabled him to build some chemistry with his receivers and rebuild some arm strength. Having said that, please remember that, at his best, when leading the Ravens to their Super Bowl title in 2000, the guy defined and epitomized the term now embraced by many NFL alleged pundits, when he “managed the game” to a Vince Lombardi trophy. Playing against his former team, the best he’ll be able to give us is just that. Utter, unspectacular mediocrity. Who needs an Elway cannon arm, a Marino quick release, when you’ve got that?! Add the small factor that the Ravens know him as intimately as Mrs. Dilfer, and you can consider yourself certifiably sick for having picked him up this week in hopes of turning him into valuable fantasy points.
Week 5 Prediction: 175 yards, 1 TD passing & 2 INT
RUNNINGBACKS
Frank Gore: Given what Gore did against Seattle on a yard per carry basis (avg. of 4.9), and the fact that Trent Dilfer is still trying to get his bearings within the 49er offense, expect the official mandate from upstairs this week to be: “pound the rock!” Baltimore’s D has had a reputation for being staunch against the run in recent years. Some have said that they are aging before our eyes this season; as they rank 12th in rush defense with an average of 4.3 yards allowed per rush.
Week 5 Prediction: 30 carries for 130 yards & 1 TD rushing, 35 yards & 1 TD receiving
WIDE RECEIVERS
Darrell Jackson: Last week, I had predicted that this man was going to have a coming out party. I’ll admit that I was quite a bit off; as he only racked up 38 yards receiving. Considering his low season output, and the fact that the Niners are going to emphasize their running game this week, watch for Jackson to produce very little…
Week 5 Prediction: 3 receptions, 35 yards
Arnaz Battle: 3 receptions for 19 yards against Seattle put him under the game total I had anticipated. The Niners conservative offensive schemes will most certainly keep him in that vicinity.
Week 5 Prediction: 3 receptions, 20 yards
Ashley Lelie: Until this guy shapes up and grabs at least one reception, we’re going to keep his stat sheet in a minimalist zen state.
Week 5 Prediction: 0 receptions, 0 total yards
TIGHT ENDS
Delanie Walker: This 2nd year tight end started last week, in Davis’ absence, and provided very little production (1 reception for 7 yards). Expect the same kind of low output, even though Trent may well need a security blanket over the middle.
Week 5 Prediction: 2 reception, 15 yards
PLACE KICKER
Joe Nedney: The Ravens will provide very few opportunities to score touchdowns this Sunday. Watch for a few Niner drives to stall in the Ravens territory creating long field goal chances for Nedney.
Week 5 Prediction: 2 FGs, from between 40 and 50 yards away
DEFENSE
49ers Defense: I am running out of ways to explain this for people at this point. The Niners’ defense ranks 20th in Yahoo Sports Fantasy with default settings, as far as a pure Fantasy point producer—which should be your sole and unique goal. In rushing defense, they rank 26th in the NFL, giving up an average of 4.0 yards per carry. San Francisco’s passing defense picks it up, with an NFL rank of 11. All-in-all a squad that still needs to shore up many holes in order to become a NFL-leader. And one that is not yet ball-hawking or sack-producing enough to be a Fantasy dream…
We’ll see you next week, as we continue to pan for gold within the 49ers roster…
TV and the NFC Reviews October 3, 2007
Posted by Todd in : Uncategorized , 1 comment so farPart two of the NFC breakdown in just a minute, but first I thought I would point out a few shows and people that have irritated or impressed me.
- Kid Nation is absolutely hilarious. I am sure everyone has read some of the critiques of the premise, but the children on this show couldn’t be funnier. Do yourself a favor and read this and then watch the show.
- I was flipping through the channels and saw that the new season of the Bachelor started and I wanted to see the women who were going to fight over some guy they didn’t know and proclaim they were in love after 3 days of booze-soaked contrived
situations. I was disappointed to see these chicks, maybe three lookers in the group, and I had to laugh when the Bachelor acted interested in any of them. This guy wouldn’t waste 2 seconds on a single one in the real world. This guy OWNS THREE BARS IN AUSTIN!!!
Underage cowgirls, here I come!
He is going to be swimming in UT coeds about immediately after he calls off the engagement and hops a plane back to Texas (which should be about 2 nanoseconds after he proposes in the final episode and the cameras shut off). Now that the talent of female suitors has run out, this show serves no purpose. My advice is to get a wise-cracking jerk to be the next bachelor and just insult the ladies to see how many of them will put up with it just to be on another episode.
- Thoughts and prayers out to TC Ostrander, the current Stanford QB, who suffered a seizure on Sunday while watching TV with some friends. All reports are that he is good condition and I hope to see him back out on the field as soon as possible.
- I have never been in a fight before, but there are a few people I would like to go toe-to-toe with if 
I ever met them. For instance, this guy, this guy, and this guy make that list.
I wish Marciano would do this to a few guys on TV
All of them just rub me the wrong way for one reason or another, and I am pretty sure I could kick their ass, mainly because I outweigh them by 100 pounds.
- Dexter has become my favorite show on television. An incredible premise that is put onto the small screen with excellent writing, acting, and camera work. Season two just started on Showtime, but I suggest renting Season 1 on DVD and prepare to have your mind blown.
- One final thought on TV. I saw a commercial for Last One Standing and I cannot wait until Thursday. I have high hopes because the 1 minute commercial got me so pumped up I was ready to hit the gym. I then realized that I can barely do 20 pushups and calmed down, but I was really excited for about 30 seconds. (Contender is also awesome, but I couldn’t give it its own bullet point because I said this was the last one).
Onto the rest of the NFC
SOUTH
Buccaneers (3-1) – The surprise team of the division because not much has changed from the team that finished last in 2006 except adding a 37 year old Jeff Garcia to run the show on
offense. However, the team that finished last the previous season has won the division 4 straight years, so maybe this isn’t such a big shocker (Saints in 2006, Buccaneers in 2005, Falcons in 2004, and Panthers in 2003).
Maybe getting married in the offseason re-energized Jeff
Garcia has brought some life to the offense which was horrible with the Simms and Gradkowski tandem last year, and Jeff has yet to throw an interception. While the offense has improved, the defense has been incredible allowing only 11ppg and constantly pressuring the opposing QB. Cadillac Williams just suffered a season ending knee injury which will slow the run game down, but as long as they win the turnover game and keep teams under two TDs, the Bucs can go deep in the playoffs…just ask the 2006 Bears.
Panthers (2-2) – If I was a starting QB, I would lobby for David Carr to be my backup. That way, if I ever got hurt, Carr would get in there and suck so much that all I would have to do is play OK when I got back. By comparison, I would look like Unitas and a huge contract extension would soon follow. Right now Delhomme is looking pretty darn good to Panther fans and Texan fans are laughing their way into the playoffs. On offense, the RB duo of DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster and WR DeSteve Smith (sorry, it became a habit) should produce points every week, but they have been inconsistent. The defense has been lackluster allowing 34pts to the Texans and Julius Peppers has been downright bad with no sacks and only 9 tackles on the season. This team needs someone on defense to step up and for Delhomme to hurry back if they want any chance of a playoff push.
Falcons (1-3) – I wonder if Bobby Petrino sits at his desk preparing to answer questions about Vick or jackass CB DeAngelo Hall and regrets his decision to leave Louisville. Joey Harrington has lived up to his reputation as a crappy QB and a loaded defense has failed to make enough big plays to cover up the shortcomings of the offense. Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood have combined for only 86ypg on the ground and a lack of discipline has cost the team a win. They were doomed from the beginning with the Vick disaster, and unless the offense can improve, Petrino could find himself in position to draft Brian Brohm with a top 3 pick in the draft next spring.
Saints (0-3) – The team benefited from low expectations, Reggie Bush, and some unknown WRs blowing up last year. Well, teams watched some tape in the offseason and seem to have cracked the code of their offense. The offensive line has deservedly taken heat for the sharp decline in the run game and pass pro, but Brees has been shaky and those young WRs are not making the plays down the field like they did a year ago. Their secondary was exposed in the opener against Indy and there just doesn’t seem to be any playmakers on the defensive side. Bush has been disappointing so far, but I still expect him to be a top player in the league before long. This guy was the greatest college football player I have ever seen in person (narrowly edging Ryan Leaf) and I refuse to believe he can consistently be contained. On the positive side, if they continue to be horrible, maybe I won’t have to keep hearing about how much money our government is wasting by attempting to rebuild that dump of a city.
WEST
Seahawks (3-1) – The Seahawks were a bit of a sleeper with everyone jumping on the 49ers bandwagon this offseason, but many overlooked that this team that won the NFC
two years ago is back and healthy (other than Alexander’s sore wrist).
Want to see some magic? I am going to make my hair disappear.
They aren’t the dominant offense with the Hutchinson and Jones pairing up front, but the Hawks still run the ball well and Hasselbeck is the Brian Westbrook of QBs…not very flashy, but he puts up consistent numbers every game. The defense is playing well keeping teams under 14ppg and creating turnovers, and they have the experience other NFC teams are lacking. Definitely the team to beat in the NFC West.
Cardinals (2-2) – A team this loaded on offense should be unstoppable (1st rounders at QB, RB, and 2 WRs…and Boldin is not one of them) but they have been very average on offense except for a couple of Kurt Warner led drives. Whisenhunt has been doing his best Spurrier impression by rotating QBs, but it led the Cardinals a big win over the Steelers. As long as Leinart can keep his ego in check, the team has a chance toroll into the playoffs. The defense has been solid and if the offense can start living up to its potential, the Cardinals can be a wild card in the horrible NFC.
49ers (2-2) – Count me as a member of the group who was expecting the 49ers to make a playoff run this season. A good young defense, some big free agent moves, Frank 
Gore, and year 3 of the Alex Smith era had fans in the Bay Area counting on the postseason. Instead, those fans are saddled with the worst offense in the NFL under 1st year coordinator Jim Hostler. Also, if this is true, the 49ers have a lot more to worry about than missing the playoffs.
Hey buddy, stay healthy so I don’t have to remind everyone how bad I am.
By the way, Hostler was the quality control coach with me just a few years ago with Jets, and while he is hard working and very nice guy, he didn’t strike me as being the leader than this team needs right now. Also, why were fans surprised when Dilfer sucked on Sunday? His career stats have always shown him to be a below average QB, he is old, and the guy hadn’t taken a game snap in two years. All that said, they do have an exciting defense and Patrick Willis should be in the top 3 for Rookie of the Year because he is a stud. After four weeks, this team is treading water and their arms are looking very tired.
Rams (0-4) – The worst team in football thanks to injuries to their starting LT, QB, RB, and both WRs…simply writing that is amazing. They have been outscored by an average of 16 points per game and they are not going to get any better without their playmakers on offense. It might be time for an overhaul because Pace, Bruce, and Holt are all getting long in the tooth and the defense is lacking anything to get excited about. Let’s hope Steven Jackson survives the rebuilding process because he has a chance to become an excellent back, but he can’t do it alone.
Next post…the AFC
Quarterly Review October 1, 2007
Posted by Todd in : Uncategorized , 1 comment so farI have been lazy in posting new additions recently, but it amazing what being on commission will do to one’s work habits. However, I also find it frustrating when “experts” put out their weekly power rankings, only to see it get upended every week, so I have been avoiding the weekly updates. If the NFL teaches people anything, it is that no one knows what is going to happen and putting out predictions lends itself to looking foolish more often than not (such as my lead pipe lock of the Steelers beating the Cardinals today by three TDs.). That being said, the first four weeks weeded out a few contenders and pretenders, and gave fans a pretty good idea of where their team is heading. Before I get to a review of the first month, there are a few things that have to be touched on.
- Mike Vick…really? All you have to do is stay out of trouble for a few months while you await your trial and you get caught for a positive drug test. This guy hasn’t just burned his bridges back to the NFL, he has put C4 on them and hit the switch. It was nice knowing you.
- The whole Patriots cheating scandal is the biggest non-story I can remember. Coaches are always looking for an edge; that is why they study 75 hours of tape per week. Belichek was video taping signals and most likely had been for years, but until I hear a rational explanation of how they could use that information and communicate to the 
players on the field, I refuse to believe it had an effect on the outcome of any game. The defense signals in their scheme after the offense calls the play and the QB’s headset automatically shuts off with 15 seconds left on the play clock.
Something tells me to take the Pats next time they play the Jets, even if they are giving 40 points
It is impossible for someone to decipher the defensive call, relay it to the QB, and then have the QB process that information while worrying about everything else that is going on and use that info to his advantage.
- When did we all become immune to the crazy names in the NFL? I think it was around the time Plaxico Burress entered the league, but I cannot remember the last time I heard a name and thought “What? Who names their child that?” We all just became numb to the idea that there are some parents out there who want their child to be beaten up so badly that they just starting throwing letters together like Scrabble tiles. I am going to list some first names and I want you to identify which actual NFL players and which are names I made up:
Travarous, Tavaris, Tavares, Travonti, Dek, Markee, Arkee, Lamart, Jerricho, Curome, Chartric, Keyunta, Dovante, Demarcus, Demorrio, D’Brickashaw, Zarnell, Onrea, Madieu, Erasmus, Renardo, Flozell, Seppo, Jahkeen, Tyjuan, KaMichael, Parys, Kay-Jay, D’Qwell, Jeramie, Jeremi, and Xzavie. See the answer in two paragraphs.
- It is interesting almost the entire first round of my fantasy draft have been busts. Tomlinson, Addai and Willie Parker have all been steady but not dominant. Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Lawrence Maroney, Reggie Bush, Rudi Johnson, and Maurice Jones-Drew have all been bottled up this season.
Answer: THEY ARE ALL REAL!!! I was going through the rosters and made it though only 6 pages of names (there were about 36) and came up with that list. I was actually going to come up with some fake ones, but I couldn’t do any better than Xzavie. My favorite names were Mansfield Wrotto of the Seahawks and Ulrich Winkler of the Titans. Hilarious.
- The NFC is absolutely horrible. The Cowboys have been outstanding and the Packers have gutted out some tough wins, but who is the third best NFC team? The Seahawks
have defensive issues, Tampa Bay has looked decent but their lack of offensive firepower will catch up to them, the Eagles are banged up and inconsistent, and the Bears are an offensive mess.
Hang loose and hallelujah
A case could be made that the Lions to be the third best team because they can score points in a hurry and they have God on their side. Put a gun to my head and I go with Detroit…that is how bad the NFC is.
Now, onto the NFC East and North review. I will list the current standing in parentheses and avoid making any predictions because I want to avoid looking dumber than I already am:
EAST
Cowboys (4-0) – They are averaging 38 games and they are doing it mostly through the air. Tony Romo has been very, very impressive and I would put him in the top 5 QBs in the NFL right now. His decision making, accuracy, and ability to make something 
happen when the pocket breaks down are incredible. He is not a fluke, and I definitely was not high on his until watching him play twice this season and he has been consistent.
It would be hard for me to concentrate on the gameplan.
I also thought he might succumb to his own stardom after dating Carrie Underwood and filming a number of commercials in the offseason, but he has improved and in playing as well as anyone in the league. Of course, with Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Marion Barber, and with Patrick Crayton emerging as a dangerous WR, Romo has playmakers everywhere making him look good. The defense has given up some points this season (about 20 per game), but if they can create some turnovers and give the offense a short field, this team is going to roll to the top seed in the NFC.
Redskins (2-1) – The Redskins are about as boring a team as there is in the NFL. They don’t score points (17pg) and they don’t allow points (16pg). There are not many playmakers on either side of the ball although Jason Campbell has improved from being a bad QB to a sub-mediocre one. They won two close games against the Dolphins and the Eagles and lost to the Giants. Portis and Betts provide a solid 1-2 punch in the running game and they will continue to lean on the RBs to continue to grind out the close wins and hope their defense doesn’t give up more than 20 points.
Giants (2-2) – Baby Buckethead has avoided the mistakes this season and the defense is starting to adjust to the attacking style of play brought over by the new defensive
coordinator. Plaxico Burress has become a top WR with 6 TDs through the first 4 games, but they are still looking to find a reliable RB replacement for the injured Brandon Jacobs. They wouldn’t be a top 10 team in the AFC, but they have a chance to be a wildcard team because their offense has big-play capability and the defense can create turnovers.
I don’t think Archie will be endorsing this photo, although I like Eli a bit more after seeing it.
Eagles (1-3) – McNabb answered his critics last week with a career half against the Lions and showed everyone that the Eagles are still a team to be reckoned with. Injuries have decimated the Eagles with Pro-Bowlers Brian Dawkins, Tra Thomas, Lito Shepperd, and Brian Westbrook all out. However, this team has good coaches, a solid offensive line (quick edit…I wrote this before the Giants defense obliterated the offensive line for 12 sacks. They need Tra Thomas back in a hurry), and veterans who have been there before so the Eagles are still a dangerous team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them emerge as the second best team in the division. As I type this the Giants are taking a 17-0 lead, though, so it is going to be a tough road to second place. Once they get their impact players back from injury, I expect a better team in the second half of the season. By the way, has there been a more underrated lineman that John Runyan? That guy has been a force at RT for what seems like 20 years, and unfortunately he is best known for having hairy trap muscles. Shave those things Runyan, it gives me the creeps.
NORTH
Packers (4-0) – The feel good story of the year is the resurgence of Brett Favre and the Packers offense, and rightly so as he has averaged 300yds and 2 TDs a game. More 
impressively, Favre has been doing it without any semblance of a running game as they are dead last in the NFL with 54yds per game.
Hey, can I get a run game please?
However, people are overlooking the improved defense that is allowing only 16 points per game and has already forced 8 turnovers. Favre limiting his mistakes and a ball-hawking defense have keyed the Packers great start, but if they want to continue to win they are going to need someone to step up in the running game because they are going to have to grind out the clock in the tight games.
Lions (3-1) – It took 4 first round draft picks, but Matt Millen finally assembled the stable of WRs he has always dreamed of…even though three members of that stable came via free agency and were a 4th rounder (McDonald), a 5th rounder (Walters) and undrafted (Furrey). Jon Kitna prediction double digit victories on the season, and the way the horrible NFC is shaping up, they will probably get there. The defense can be flat out bad, like when they gave up 42 points against the Eagles in the 1st half, but they already have intercepted an incredible 9 passes. Any time an offense that potent can get the short field, the team is going to be tough to beat, and that is what has happened so far this season.
Bears (1-3) – Grossman and Griese have both laid eggs as the starting QB, with Griese
throwing three late INTs against the Lions and gave the game away.
It’s only fair, Rex has been doing it to Bears fans for a month.
I would imagine if they ran the ball every single play, their chances of winning would increase. The defense missed Tank Johnson, but the numbers are a bit skewed because the offense is constantly turning the ball over and putting the D in a bad spot. Urlacher is continuing to play like Butkus, but there is only so much a good defense and great special teams can do with the offense is so inept. I would seriously try to run the ball 90% of the time if I am the Bears offensive coordinator, if only to avoid a mutiny led by the defense.
Vikings (1-3) – Is there anyone out there who expected the Viking offense to score points this year with Tavaris Jackson at QB and some crappy WRs? Now Jackson is out and replaced by Kelly Holcolmb who holds the distinction of joining Koy and Ty Detmer as the only players in the NFL who had worse bodies than I did. Adrian Peterson is a reason to come to the stadium and the defense has played well (two defensive TDs in week 1 are the only reason this team is not 0-4). This team needs some free agent help at QB, WR and TE before they are going to have a serious shot at contending.
Next post, the rest of the NFC gets reviewed.
