Golden Nuggets: A (Caffeinated) Walrus Invades The Bay September 30, 2007
Posted by Paul in : Uncategorized , add a comment
[Quick syndication note: this is the 5th of several weekly installments that I’m contributing to Fantasy Insights, throughout the NFL Season. A big thank you to Shawn McCullough for allowing us to syndicate to our site.]
Before I begin writing about the happenings in Pittsburgh, I’d like to move to the other prominent metropolis is the state of Pennsylvania for a personal anecdote. As everyone knows, Motown came into Philly for a good ol’ fashion shootout. As a fantasy owner, I’ve prided myself into (more likely than not) finding the most appropriate time to play the men that compose my roster. Having grown frustrated over Kevin Curtis’ lack of fantasy production as Philly’s #2 wide receiver, I was pondering on finding an alternative to starting him.
I was well aware that Detroit’s defense has as many holes as a freshly cut slice of Swiss Cheese. But then again, I knew I had the possibility to pick up Joey Porter; Oakland’s wide receiver, who—in most people’s minds—is a bigger name than the aforementioned Curtis (please leave Jamie Lee out of this!). Porter was going against an equally staunch pass defense in Cleveland; who had let Carson Palmer throw touchdowns at will the week prior. I thought: why not go with the more proven commodity? I struggled to wake up 30mins before kickoff to pull off the maneuver. 10mins before the pigskin left the kicking tee, Curtis had been given the hook and Joey had been added and inserted in my starting lineup. I’ll let you fill in the rest of the story… The moral of this episode is dealing with the prospective is an arduous proposition. As hard as this might be to believe: no one has a crystal ball…
Last week, the inevitable happened. San Francisco—one of the league’s trendiest playoff picks—went down to a clearly superior team in the Steel City. Their weaknesses were exposed. Their hopes were dashed. And the reality check was chilling and cruel. The report card was handed down. The inflated grades were brought down to a more well-founded GPA…
Although reports out of Sacramento (of all places) have him not playing in this week’s game or next week’s game, Vernon Davis has certainly mastered the art of lobbying. So much so, that he may have a job waiting for him in the Nation’s Capital after his playing days are over. In the week leading up to the game against Pittsburgh, Davis reportedly stormed Coach Nolan’s office and asked for the ball on the coming Sunday. The Physical Specimen had apparently grown wary of not being featured at all in a Niner offensive attack that could have certainly used his Services. The message must have traveled down the ranks, as Hostler was much more creative in manufacturing opportunities for his young TE since the very outset of Sunday’s game. I don’t quite know what Hostler was thinking in not leveraging his young TE’s natural ability. But the wake-up call certainly was delivered. May this be a lesson to Prima Donna/Diva wide receivers (you know who you are: TO, Randy Moss, “Give me the Damn Ball” Keyshawn): there are efficient ways to lobby in-house without causing a disruption within the locker room. What a novel idea!
Interestingly, this week Monster Park is going to house two behemoths of the NFC West; clashing for division supremacy. Seattle will come down from its perch in the Pacific Northwest and battle San Francisco. These teams are fairly equivalent; and this match-up will come down to home field and time of possession. In both categories, the 49ers have an advantage, as Gore will be handed the ball early and often. Although most would see how Mike Holmgren has pulled a Tony Bennett in leaving “his heart in San Francisco”, the Walrus will also be waddling back to the Caffeine Capital without a victory this Sunday. San Francisco takes it, in one that will keep you on the edge of your couch: 24-21.
INJURIES
1) Vernon Davis: listed as “Questionable”
It seems that his knee injury is much more serious than the “questionable” tag used to label him for this week’s game. The Sacramento Bee (not a local paper, mind you) reports that the Niner tight end will not be back in the lineup for at least two games…
(Quick note: another round of applause for the 49ers training staff as this week’s list of the Walking Wounded appears to be a solo act…)
QUARTERBACKS
Alex Smith: Although Mr. Smith put up better numbers than anticipated due to some garbage time heroics after the game’s outcome has been minted this past Sunday. And given he’s facing the 30th pass defense in the NFL on Sunday, this is a golden opportunity for the 49er QB to reproduce some of the theatrics he put up last year against the ‘Hawks on Monday night.
Week 4 Prediction: 250 yards, 2TDs passing & 1 INT, with 25 yards scampering
RUNNINGBACKS
Frank Gore: Much like his other alleged Fantasy stalwarts (LT, LJ, Steven Jackson), Gore has struggled to prove that he was worthy of a high first round pick (only averaging 3.4 yards/carry). He’s apparently frustrated at the lack of offensive production from his team; and has been adamant that Seattle was a perfect target for an expedited anger-release. Putting those vocal comments aside from the offense’s truest star, let’s activate our critical minds for a second and look at this objectively. While being horrendous at defending the pass, Seattle is just plain mediocre when it comes to stuffing the ground game—ranking a middle-of-the-pack 16th, allowing 102 yards per game. Looking at Gore, as one of the best in his line of work, it doesn’t take complex projections to see that he’ll most likely put out over 100 yards on the ground on Sunday.
Week 4 Prediction: 25 carries for 120 yards & 1 TD rushing, 25 yards & 1 TD receiving
WIDE RECEIVERS
Darrell Jackson: As the Niner’s #1 target, he still hasn’t yet put up a game that would legitimize him as such. Watch for him to be extra-motivated against his former team. Jackson breaks out with a performance reminiscent of his namesake at the Grammy’s.
Week 4 Prediction: 8 receptions, 105 yards & 1TD
Arnaz Battle: If Jackson is the Niners’ #1 target, this gentleman is certainly 1A. Sunday will prove to be an efficient day for Battle, as the Seattle’s defense will be focusing its efforts elsewhere…
Week 4 Prediction: 5 receptions, 80 yards
Ashley Lelie: Can you say “practice player”? Until he shows us more than zeroes on the stat sheet, I’m going to think that his consistency prevails…
Week 4 Prediction: 0 receptions, 0 total yards
TIGHT ENDS
Billy Bajema: Whom you ask? Yes, the Niners may be kicking themselves now, for having shipped off veteran Eric Johnson to the Crescent City. Lacking a veritable #2 tight end, San Francisco will pin its hopes on Bajema this Sunday. Showing very little statistical prowess over his three year NFL career, don’t expect Hostler to feature him heavily in the game plan.
Week 4 Prediction: 1 receptions, 10 yards
PLACE KICKER
Joe Nedney: The Stick’s swirling winds would play havoc for any kicker. This guy is certainly no exception. Factor in the recent cruddy weather in the Bay, and the fact that San Francisco will have conversion of TDs when entering the red zone on Sunday, and you’ve got yourself a low output from Nedney.
Week 4 Prediction: 1 FGs, from between 30 and 40 yards away
DEFENSE
49ers Defense: Shall I continue to tell my readers that it may well still be too early to start this unit on a regular basis? Alexander has a broken wrist, which may generate more drops and more loose footballs. But please don’t count on a Mike Holmgren-coached offense for turnovers. The Walrus has a great track record in mentoring his young pupils towards error-free football (Exhibit A: Brett Favre). Hasselbeck is healthy this time; and has been connecting on a semi-frequent basis with Deion Branch. Patience will be your best virtue with San Francisco’s D. By the end of the year, they may well have gained enough experience to be considered amongst the League’s best. Until that happens, they’ll be a little wet behind the ears…
We’ll see you next week, as we continue to pan for gold within the 49ers roster…
Golden Nuggets: Steel, As the Most Precious Metal this Week… September 23, 2007
Posted by Paul in : Uncategorized , add a comment
[Quick syndication note: this is the 4th of several weekly installments that I’m contributing to Fantasy Insights, throughout the NFL Season. A big thank you to Shawn McCullough for allowing us to syndicate to our site.]
Last week, San Francisco came a few feet short of losing their first ballgame of the 2007 campaign. Most fans, including the 49ers’ radio play-by-play voice Joe Starkey, thought Wilkins’ kick was going to sail over that cross-bar and deliver a dagger to the Niner’s bid at remaining undefeated. The football Gods seemed to intervene, even from within the Edward Jones dome. Who can blame them? The 49ers are the new sexy/trendy pick in the National Football League this season. It’s made up of a bright, new class of upstarts vying to prove both that they belong as individuals, and that, as a coherent whole, they deserve R-E-S-P-E-C-T in this league. One of the last nostalgic pieces from those glory days of the past—Bryant Young—remains, as an ever-present reminder that this franchise should be part of the elite. But even Young—who won a SuperBowl as a rookie with another Young (ESPN analyst Steve) at the helm—has grown tired with the mediocrity that has plagued San Francisco for close for quite a few years.
He must be relieved to see that his ensemble cast is on the up-and-up. Can they keep the good feelings flowing in one of America’s toughest cities?
No brain surgeon or rocket scientist needs to come in here and diagram this one. Call your local waste management people, as this one is going to be ugly… It will be a yellow sea at Heinz Field, as waves of Terrible Towels will be flapping on Sunday. The 49ers will be overwhelmed from the get-go. The new Steel Curtain will be pressuring Alex Smith early-and-often.
You would imagine that the Faithful would be overjoyed with the recent happenings. Their team is 2-0. It’s been a while since most Niner fans had enough self-respect to imitate their fearless General Mike Nolan and strut confidently down the sidewalk like he does on an NFL sideline. But no! Anyone that has been listening to sports talk radio in the Bay Area (including my Show), for the past week or so, knows that discontent from the Forty-Niner Faithful has been resounding. Those with their wine-and-brie-heads firmly in place understand the transformation at work, under the Nolan Regime. But most are angered that the artistry of the deft, brilliant, finesse West Coast offense we all had grown to love, is nonexistent. The offensive unit has not produced, much less delivered any of the orchestrated ballet that we had grown accustomed to under Bill Walsh and his disciple successors. The names of Montana and Young are still impressed in everyone’s memory; and most can’t forget those two signal callers’ respective point outputs. And that has the Faithful complaining that they don’t quite have the team they had once gotten used to…
Forget that the Niners have been stout defensively; in their “bend but don’t break” philosophy (326.5 yds. allowed/game for just 16.5 pts/game given up). What is interesting to you, Fantasy fan, is that the offense will probably not help you as much as you once thought. That squad will remain mediocre and conservative. So conservative have they been over the past couple of weeks; that they would make a Republican uncomfortable. Hostler hasn’t yet optimized his talents on that side of the ball; and Nolan has done very little to pressure him into doing so. That leaves Vernon Davis with much less production than we originally thought. Alex Smith has become a complete bottom rung Fantasy contributor. Conclusion for Fantasy owners: the 49ers offense is scarce in weapons that will end up helping you. Until they prove that they can put up numbers; I would stay away from most protagonists… (Which leaves me wondering why anyone would be reading this column ;)!)
The Gold Miners come back to earth in a 20-6 bashing at the hands of the league’s best defense, and realize that their original migration to the West was for not, as Steel proves the best of all precious metals…
INJURIES
1) Manny Lawson: Out for the Season
On Wednesday, in practice, Manny Lawson suffered a knee injury. An MRI revealed the worst of news; a torn ACL that will sideline him for the rest of the season. On Friday, as expected, the 49ers placed him on IR.
Despite the loss it will be for the San Francisco’s D, that has adopted the “bleed-but-don’t hemorrhage” mantra all-season; if you were one of the few stuck with playing this squad week-in week-out, you’ve got some serious issues. Even though I’ve preached that this side of the ball was going to get better as the season goes on, this injury shouldn’t affect you much; as you shouldn’t rely on them to garner you many points, at this present time…
2) Arnaz Battle: listed as “Probable”
My inside Bay Area sources are telling me that Arnaz was catching passes at Stalag 49 today. His groin seems to be back in form; and should allow him to partake in Sunday’s clash in Pittsburgh.
3) Darrell Jackson: listed as “Probable”
The latest reports out of the 49er headquarters had this guy returning to practice today, after “tweaking” his back on a blocking attempt last Sunday against the Rams. He should be able to go this week against the Steelers. One quick hit for you: the thing to watch out for is that this type of injury could very well be re-incurring, particularly against a hard-hitting secondary. You don’t think big blows could very well be served by Polamalu and Company if he ventures over-the-middle? That could certainly play a role in his production; if his day is suddenly shortened by another “tweak”. “Darrell, bring an extra bottle of Tiger Balm!”
QUARTERBACKS
Alex Smith: You look at this guy’s numbers over the first few games, and you tell yourself that Hostler will have a hard time putting the game in his hands. For that reason, until he proves that he can put up good numbers, continue to expect Fantasy mediocrity from Smith. Considering what he put up last week, with a poor Rams’ pass defense (11-of-17 for 126 yards), you can expect the same poor passing output.
Week 3 Prediction: 150 yards & 2 INTs, with 10 yards scurrying
RUNNINGBACKS
Frank Gore: Just watch what happens on Sunday. It doesn’t take a bright defensive coordinator (this scribe certainly isn’t one) to figure out the strategy to employ against San Francisco. Watch for Polamalu to creep up to the line of scrimmage with great regularity, as anyone with a modicum of football acumen understands that this game needs to be put in Smith’s hands to win-or-lose… Gore will have a slow day; as the Niners will largely be overmatched upfront…
Week 3 Prediction: 25 carries for 75 yards & 1 TD rushing, 10 yards receiving
WIDE RECEIVERS
Darrell Jackson: As mentioned in the injury report; the combination of tender/tweak-able back and a fierce Steeler defensive secondary doesn’t sound very appealing for Jackson.
Week 3 Prediction: 3 receptions, 35 yards
Arnaz Battle: Groin or no groin; expect Arnaz to be the leading receiver coming out of Sunday’s game. Now, let’s not get over excited; the most prolific wideout for San Francisco may only garner 40 yards receiving…
Week 3 Prediction: 5 receptions, 50 yards
Ashley Lelie: The stat sheet is completely blank for this guy, thus far. Despite getting more playing this Sunday due to Jackson’s injury, I will remain extremely conservative until he shows the rest of the football world that he can actually perform…
Week 3 Prediction: 1 receptions, 10 yards
TIGHT ENDS
Vernon Davis: It has made more than one Niner fan sick to see this incredibly gifted man with a body of an Adonis sit by and rarely contribute to the passing game. I don’t know what Hostler has been thinking… Nor do many close observers. Boy, do we miss you Norvell… Why did you have to leave for America’s Finest City?
Week 3 Prediction: 2 receptions, 25 yards
PLACE KICKER
Joe Nedney: Heinz Field is a horrible place to kick the pigskin. Nedney will get a couple of long tries, as the Niners offense is sure to stall more than a few times in Steeler territory.
Week 3 Prediction: 2 FGs, both from between 40 and 50 yards away
DEFENSE
49ers Defense: How many times must we really go over this? This D will probably end up being a good late season pick-up, if you’re desperate. (Shall I draw the comparison of a young bloke picking up on his 4th or 5th choice on a night out, as his alcohol content heightens and the evening is dwindling to a close?) As of now, you shouldn’t be relying on this fledgling unit to even make your roster. Be patient with this young grasshopper… Before long, it will be a true preying mantis (my apologies in advance; as I proceed to insult all entomologists…), feasting on opposing quarterbacks’ heads, as its Sunday dinner…
We’ll see you next week, as we continue to pan for gold within the 49ers roster…
Crab Cakes with a Side of Pain September 15, 2007
Posted by Neil in : Uncategorized , add a commentI would like to thank Shawn McCullough of Fantasy Insights for allowing Paul and I to put up our weekly fantasy colunms.
WOW! That was about as horrible an opener as a team could have. Gang Green and Co. had their bitter division rival in their house with Fireman Ed and crew ready to rally the Jets to a big season-opening victory over Playboy Tom Brady. The Meadowlands was set to have one of the most intriguing games of Week 1 between the two best teams in the AFC East. If the Jets wanted to make a statement that last year’s 10-6 record was no fluke, and that their goal of dethroning the Pats atop the AFC East was not a pipe dream, they had to win this game. Instead, they flat out got dominated, and had their struggling starting quarterback get hurt in the process. Chad actually played incredible when he was on the field last week. He was an outstanding 16 for 21 for 167 yards with 2 TD’s and 0 picks. Things regressed with Kellen Clemens at the helm as he was only 5 of 10 for 35 yards. The 38-14 loss to the Pats at home last Sunday, means so much more than 1 game on the schedule. It proves that New England is an ultra-dominant (although a cheating) team that is worlds better than any of their AFC East brethren.
The Jets travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens in a battle of two wounded playoff teams from 2006 that are both trying to avoid an 0-2 start. This week’s game at Baltimore could likely be uglier for the Jets than last week’s unimaginably horrid loss was. The Ravens are coming off turning the pigskin over 6 times and giving up 27 points to their division rival Cincy. Ray Lewis, Chris McAlister, Ed Reed, and Co. are going to be ready to put a hurtin’ on the hapless Jets. Gang Green is walking into a hornet’s nest on Saunday afternoon, and they are going to get stung early and often. PREDICTION: PAIN! I think the biggest upset of the young NFL season would be for the Jets to score double digits in this game. The Ravens will pressure Kellen Clemens making his first NFL start, and force him into turnovers. They will also shut down Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. Ravens 27-Jets 9.
We knew he wouldn’t go through 2 straight years unscathed, but I at least hoped he would be able to make it through the first half of this season without an injury. Chad Pennington as usual is the Jets most prominent name on the injury report. He left Sunday’s game with a fairly severe ankle injury, and is telling those close to him that he will most likely miss this Sunday’s game at Baltimore. Chad, I don’t blame you. I wouldn’t want to be out there this week either, even if I was fully healthy. At Wednesday’s practice, Chad didn’t even throw at all on the side of the field and was limping. I wouldn’t play him or Kellen Clemens no matter what anyway this week against the Baltimore D.
I knew former University of Oregon Duck Kellen Clemens would have to start a couple of games for an injured Chad Pennington this year, but I certainly didn’t think it would happen in Week 2. I feel really bad for Clemens. His first NFL start is going to be a disaster. Don’t dare play him. In the unlikely event that Chad plays, don’t dare play him either. PREDICTION: Clemens is sacked repeatedly, and ends up with 175 yards with 0 TD’s and 3 INT’s.
Thomas Jones had an extremely tough debut with the Jets last Sunday. With nowhere to run he only gained 42 yards in just 12 carries. With Clemens starting against the ferocious Ravens D, the Jets will try and establish Jones and the running game. He might get more carries, but he still won’t average much over 3 yards a carry. Leon Washington was also virtually non-existent last week against NE. He only got 4 carries for 15 yards, and caught 3 balls for 30 yards. He will not get much on the ground again this week, but he will be a nice safety valve for Clemens when he is being pressured all day. PREDICTIONS: Jones runs for 55 yards. Leon Washington runs for 30 yards and catches 5 balls for 50 yards.
Coles was a huge fantasy hero for me last week. He only caught 7 balls fro 59 yards, but he had two TD’s. I hope he enjoyed the endzone last week, because he won’t be seeing it this one. This is my second straight year of having Coles on my fantasy team, this will be the first week I don’t play him. Jerricho Cotchery had an average game last Sunday catching 6 balls for 57 yards. He should have similar numbers this week. Justin McCareins was flat out pedestrian like he was last year, as he caught only 1 ball for 10 yards. PREDICTIONS: Coles has 5 catches for 57 yards. Cotchery catches 5 balls for 55 yards, and Brad Smith catches a ball or two, as does McCareins.
Chris Baker had his typical average game for him. He only caught 2 catches for 29 yards. He is good for a TD every 3 to 4 weeks, and this won’t be the week he gets one. PREDICTIONS: Chris Baker doesn’t get his 1st TD of the season this week, and catches 3 balls for 33 yards.
Mike Nugent did his job last week as he usually always does. He made both his PAT’s and didn’t get a FG attempt. I have him on my fantasy team, and I even picked up a new kicker for this week since I don’t think Nugent will have many opportunities.
This is not the week to play the Jets defense. The Ravens are a hungry team playing at home and desperate for a win. They turned the pigskin over 6 times last week, and you can make sure Brian Billick will be preaching ball security all this week. Nothing good will likely happen for the Jets special teams this week, as I expect a complete and dominant perfomance by the Ravens.
Golden Nuggets: Turf War Under the Golden Arch September 14, 2007
Posted by Paul in : Uncategorized , add a comment[Quick syndication note: this is the 3rd of several weekly installments that I’m contributing to Fantasy Insights, throughout the NFL Season. A big thank you to Shawn McCullough for allowing us to syndicate to our site.]
The 49ers surprised many in the NFL community (including this scribe) with their end result—20-17—under the lights of Monday Night Football, against the normally-explosive Cardinals. Once the adrenaline wore off, most 49er Faithful were able to let the win wash over them, as they contently drifted off to sleep…
There are a few things to note from the NFC West battle that took place at Monster Park, on Monday Night. (One of them is: please don’t ever force the Worldwide Leader to put together a last-minute broadcast booth. They had already botched the good repartee existent amongst McGuire, Theismann, and Patrick in that old Sunday Night Football booth by creating a dissonant and unentertaining mix with Kornheiser, Jaworski, and Tirico. And we expected them to patch together a good B team to invade San Francisco and enlighten the rest of the television-viewing public on the happenings under those bright MNF lights? You’re right; what was I thinking?! But I digress…)
The first Fantasy feedback (dare I say “Insight”) of interest is the following: could you have imagined San Francisco doing such great job against the flurry of offensive weapons at Leinart’s disposal? I certainly couldn’t. I had predicted a “western shootout”. We got a fairly low-scoring nail-biter; snatched away by the Niners as the Fat Lady sat in the green room. The second interesting tidbit to take away from this 1st game is that San Francisco may well win many games this season in the same fashion: by staying in them till the very end. Mike Nolan even asserted the modus operandi in Tuesday afternoon’s press conference. Can you say “ball-control”? With a quarterback that (favorite buzz term amongst alleged NFL pundits coming) “manages the game”? Will the Gold Miners win by running the pigskin, to control the clock and in the process ensuring victory in time-of-possession battle? By playing better defense than most forecasted; thanks to those called-in reinforcements in the form of free agent signings and draft acquisitions? Early in the season, I had said that Smith was going to have a decent, yet unspectacular season. If Monday night is any indication, you can think of Alex Smith as a potentially clutch signal-caller; but not one that will keep delivering football Fantasies every week. And you can think of your San Francisco 49ers as a far cry and distant image from previous offensive attacks headed by field generals named Young and Montana…
The 49ers head to the golden arch (singular, thankfully) of Saint Louis for an exciting turf tussle with the Rams. Pancakes will not be on the menu, as Saint-Louis will not be playing with their vaunted offensive tackle Orlando “Pancake-maker” Pace. He’s out for the remainder of the season with a torn tricep. Occupying what some believe is the most important position in football—protector of the quarterback’s blind side—this loss should prove very costly for the Rams and their usually explosive offensive arsenal. How much will Jackson be affected in the running game? Can that offensive line step up and protect Bulger? Those questions are going to start being answered at kickoff on Sunday…
This past weekend, we were able to get a quick glimpse at the protagonists in this match-up and their respective season-long outlooks. The Rams allowed 3 TD passes from Delhomme (without an INT, mind you), with 100-yard receiver in speedy Steve Smith. You ask about the rush defense? Not much better: the Panthers prowled at will, racking up 186 yards on 28 carries for a 4.9 average per carry. The Niners were not as potent on offense, as most had thought. And their defense was good, but not great.
All things being equal, a week ago, if you had asked for my prediction on this game, I would have answered very similarly than last week: “Midwestern Shootout”. But having had time to accumulate data and ruminate over this for long hours, I’ll have to amend my previous answer. On Sunday, you’ll see a “Mid-Scoring Shootout” 
unfold in front of you. Final score: 21-17 for the home team. The Rams just have a little too much offensive talent for a Niner defense that is attempting to take up the main property possessed by Pat Riley’s hair…
INJURIES:
Either Mike Nolan has forgotten to fill out the injury report, or there just aren’t any walking-wounded amongst the Niners. Feel free to give their training staff a golf clap…
(No Injuries to Report)
QUARTERBACKS:
Alex Smith: Given what he put up last week (15-31 for 126 yards, along with 36 yards-worth of scampering), and despite the Rams’ week pass defense, Alex Smith is going to remain mediocre, as a Fantasy performer. If you have more explosive options this week, feel free to utilize them…
Week 2 Prediction: 240 yards & 1 TD passing, with 25 yards galloping
RUNNINGBACKS:
Frank Gore: Gore was far from stellar last week, averaging just 3.1 yards/carry on 55 total rushing yards. His one touchdown didn’t come close to making up for the high expectations placed on him, as a workhorse of a running back for San Francisco, and a stud Fantasy performer. Expect him to have extra motivation going head-to-head against a guy who was picked just ahead of him in most (reasonable) fantasy drafts: Steven Jackson
Week 2 Prediction: 25 carries 100 yards & 1 TD rushing, 20 yards & 1 TD receiving
WIDE RECEIVERS:
Darrell Jackson: San Francisco’s #1 receiving threat was coming off an injury last week, which may have contributed to his below-par numbers (4 receptions for 36 yards). Watch for him to rebound nicely this week with passing-friendly conditions…
Week 2 Prediction: 6 receptions, 85 yards
Arnaz Battle: From scapegoat to hero on Monday night, Battle has proven to be a heart-stopping playmaker; incredible at times, agonizing at others… On Sunday, assume that he’ll carry the positive feelings from Monday through this short week, and into the Edward Jones Dome.
Week 2 Prediction: 7 receptions, 80 yards, with 15 yards rushing on an end-of-round
Ashley Lelie: Having not yet made his mark on this team, I have decided to stay very skeptical on him, until he proves he can contribute even just moderately. Would a couple of touches from this wasted talent be too much to ask?
Week 2 Prediction: 1 receptions, 15 yards
TIGHT ENDS:
Vernon Davis: Barely making a dent on the stat sheet (2 receptions for all of 4 yards) will not be good enough for this young man. Watch him to start growing within Hostler’s offensive system, starting with this coming Sunday…
Week 2 Prediction: 3 receptions, 40 yards
PLACE KICKER:
Joe Nedney: The plush almost clinical atmosphere of the Edward Jones Dome will certainly come in handy for Nedney, who has nailed two mid-range kicks already this season. Because the 49ers will be converting highly to touchdowns when getting into the red zone, anticipate Joe to get limited opportunities. When given a look at the uprights, he will remain perfect on the season.
Week 2 Prediction: 1 FG from between 40 and 50 yards away
DEFENSE:
49ers Defense: Despite the fact that they impressed both the national television audience, and a subset of their peers watching, I would like to see this squad do it over more than 1 week straight before I start calling them the “Golden Curtain”. You would think that Pace’s absence should allow the Niner defense to hamstring the Rams. But hold on; from what we’ve seen of San Francisco, they’ve been a good-pass defensive team.
Exhibit A: they held star receivers in Boldin and Fitzgerald to a meager 42 yards receiving on Monday evening. You can thank the new guys in Willis, Lewis, and Clemens for the shutdown. But before we praise the unit as a whole, let’s just remind ourselves that the Niner defense only managed 1 sack on Matt Leinart. You supplement that statistic with the assertion that San Francisco had allowed 161 yards on the ground in Week 1, and you realize that this group still has a few things to shore up. The Rams offense (spy or no spy) is a nightmare for any defensive coordinator. This week will certainly be no exception. If you have another defense stashed away in your cupboard, go ahead and seize it. Give the 49er squad a little time to coalesce (dare I say, “gel”) and prove themselves. By mid-season, they might well be a worthy starter…
We’ll see you next week, as we continue to pan for gold within the 49ers roster…
Golden Nuggets: 49er Foreplay is Officially Over… September 10, 2007
Posted by Paul in : Uncategorized , add a comment[Quick syndication note: this is the 2nd of several weekly installments that I’m contributing to Fantasy Insights, throughout the NFL Season. A big thank you to Shawn McCullough for allowing us to syndicate to our site.]
The Three Mikes (Golic, Greenberg, and Ditka: read the Worldwide Leader’s makeshift broadcast crew) are in town to call the action, as another Mike (Nolan) will take a page from Neil Patrick Harris of “How I Met Your Mother” (”suit up!”) as he confidently struts the sidelines and leads his team into one of the most anticipated seasons in recent memory… As the national television audience shifts its attention from Cincinnati to San Francisco in this rather odd Monday Night doubleheader, the 49er Faithful are both excited and anxious to get their campaign kicked off. One salient question keeps ringing in their collective minds: will all of the off-season goodwill translate into tangible results on the field of play? Can we expect the high hopes and good “on paper” moves to bring this franchise back from the cellar it has been inhabiting for the last few years? Can all of this good 49er foreplay lead us to a more satisfying outcome during the NFL’s main course?
I have never given much credence to pre-season play, in the National Football League. Let’s face it, the San Francisco 49ers have been known for having terrible losing records during the exhibition season, and leveraging that into Vince Lombardi trophies. It is less than a dress rehearsal. Most teams barely open their playbooks. It’s just an opportunity for certain players to shine or disappoint under the climate of a legitimate game situation. Terms like “game speed” can truly be evaluated for a guy whose 40-time left a lot to be desire at the Combine. Is this rookie free agent truly the over-the-middle threat we thought he was, when padded men are running at him with the intent of hitting him? Let’s face it: since the Bill Walsh era began, football practices all over the league have been more about brain than brawn. Coaches have reduced the impact and grueling nature of practices to keep their players fresh throughout the NFL Campaign. The onus is placed on absorbing the playbook for the upcoming opponent, and not on bruising your fellow teammate…
Having said that, I invite you to almost completely disregard the 1-3 record posted by the 49ers during this pre-season. What I will encourage you to do, however, is to keep a close eye on them in the early stages of this regular season; as that should be telling about your favorite football franchise…
This second of two Monday Night match-ups will provide for offensive fireworks, as very little gritty defense will be played from both teams. Last year, Arizona was ranked 29th in both points allowed and total defense. San Francisco was not much better; garnering itself a ranking of 26 in total defense and dead last in points allowed. Moral of this story? Poor tackling and broken coverages will occur under the bright lights of Monday Night Football. And both punters will certainly not be earning their game checks, as they’ll most probably be riding the pine most of the night. Arizona will prevail in this one, as they are just the better gunslinger in this western shootout…
INJURIES:
This category is rather simple when it comes to fantasy. The following two players are the only ones of interest:
1) Frank Gore: listed as “Probable”
Don’t let the injury report sway into not starting this guy this week; unless you’ve got guys ahead of him named LaDanian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Steve Jackson or Shaun Alexander. Gore will be wearing a special brace to protect his injured hand; and should shoulder much of the offensive workload for San Francisco.
2) Darrell Jackson: listed as “Questionable”
Jackson missed practiced on Monday with a pulled hamstring, warranting a “Questionable” label for this week’s game against the Cardinals. As of the writing of this column on Wednesday, Jackson has been adamant about being ready to return to practice by Thursday and play in Monday night’s game. We, rather obviously, have not had the opportunity to verify that claim. There are a few things to consider when making your call about whether or not to play him this week. Hamstring injuries have a tendency to be nagging, and tough to get completely get rid of. (You’re reading someone who’s had to battle through one, before). Their chances of reoccurring are still fairly without given them proper rest. Conversely, because of their presence under the bright lights of MNF, Darrell Jackson will have one more day to get pampered and nursed back to health by the 49ers’ training staff. As his injury label says, and even if he plays against this poor Cardinals’ defensive squad, Jackson, to me, is a little bit of a question mark…
QUARTERBACKS:
Alex Smith: if you’ve picked him up in your fantasy draft, or in subsequent transactions, you’re going to get a decent but not spectacular year out of him. Important but subtle note: if you are partaking in a TD-heavy league, Smith may not deliver adequately for you. Gore will be given the pigskin repeatedly when the 49ers are getting up close and personal with the goal line; thus taking away potential touchdown passes from the Niner signal-caller. Considering Arizona’s defense, you can expect very decent things from the Niner QB this week, though.
Week 1 Prediction: 280 yards and 1 TD passing
RUNNING BACKS:
Frank Gore: with his new hand brace firmly in place and fresh running legs, you can expect Gore to put up stellar numbers in his first regular season game.
Week 1 Prediction: 25 carries 125 yards and 2 TDs
WIDE RECEIVERS:
Darrell Jackson: Because of this “questionable” injury listing, one can only expect that Jackson will not have his best day if he plays on Monday night. If you have another #1 WR in your squad, it would surely be a good idea to go with them this week.
Week 1 Prediction: 3 receptions, 45 yards
Arnaz Battle: Look for Battle to fight for extra receptions, as he’ll have to pick up for Jackson’s injured hamstring. For that reason, he’ll become Smith’s #1 target against the Saints on Monday night.
Week 1 Prediction: 6 receptions, 80 yards
Ashley Lelie: Despite his sub-par competitiveness, Lelie will come out of the starting blocks this season understanding that he needs to make a statement. Look for him to have a decent game, as he settles into Holster’s offensive attack.
Week 1 Prediction: 4 receptions, 60 yards
TIGHT ENDS:
Vernon Davis: Eagerness will govern his early season, as he’ll be looking to prove the hype that he generated in last year’s draft. That chip on his shoulder will push him to great numbers in the fall. Davis will have the sole TD reception on the day.
Week 1 Prediction: 7 receptions, 80 yards, 1TD
PLACE KICKER:
Joe Nedney: This game will lack defense, feature a high total score, and most importantly (when thinking about kicking performances) possess a high degree of TD conversions per trip into the red zone. For those reasons, Nedney will lack a large number of opportunities that a titanic defensive clash may provide…
Week 1 Prediction: 2 FGs, with one being from between 40 and 50 yards away
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS:
49ers Defense: do we even need to go over this one? Shall we mention an ever-improving 2nd year quarterback in Matt Leinart with a plethora of offensive targets to throw to? Do the names Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Edgerrin James ring a bell? Despite its off-season acquisitions on this side of the ball, the Niner defensive unit will not have coalesced enough to even pretend to limit an extremely potent Cardinal offense. Steer clear from starting them, if you have any other option to go to…
We’ll see you next week, as we continue to pan for gold within the 49ers roster…
2007 NFL Season Predictions September 6, 2007
Posted by Neil in : Uncategorized , 1 comment so farAFC East
1. New England Patriots 13-3
Tom Brady has had quite an off-season with the birth of his first child during training camp, but fatherhood will not bother the NFL’s quintessential playboy. The only question mark will be the rapport that Gisele Bunchen’s beau will be able to build with malcontent Randy Moss. With Laurence Maroney to anchor the ground game, the Pats offense should put up big points and be one of the top offenses in the league. Couple their fireworks with one of the best defenses in the AFC buoyed by the addition of Adalius Thomas, and you may have the best team in the NFL. Anything less than holding the Vince Lombardi trophy aloft in Glendale, AZ in the beginning of February would be a major disappointment.
2. NY Jets 9-7
The Jets were maybe the biggest surprise in the NFL last year in Eric Mangini’s maiden voyage at the helm. This year they won’t be able to sneak up on teams. They key to this team is Chad Pennington’s continued health. He isn’t a sexy QB, but he flat out wins. With the addition of Thomas Jones at RB, the Jets have some weapons when you add Coles and Cotchery at the WR positions and Leon Washington as a 3rd down back. The Jets will be competitive all year if Pennington plays, and should be in the hunt for an AFC Wild Card birth.
3. Miami Dolphins 6-10
The Dolphins defense is one of the NFL’s best. Led by former brother-in-laws Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor, teams will have trouble scoring when they come to South Beach (which is in sharp contrast to what usually happens to an NFL player there). The problem is their woeful offense. They have some solid skill position players in Ronnie Brown, draft steal Lorenzo Booker, and Chris Chambers, but I don’t trust Trent Green’s health. If he plays 16 games this team could win 8 or 9, but don’t think it will happen.
4. Buffalo Bills 5-11
This team is an embryo. They have a solid defense, but are led by the erratic J.P. Losman and Cal rookie Marshawn Lynch. They will be a dangerous team that could play spoiler, but they will be out of the AFC playoff picture by November 1.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens 11-5
The Ravens have the best defense in the AFC. While Ray Lewis isn’t as fast or intimidating as he was 5 years ago, Ed Reed, Chris McAlister and Co. pick up the slack. Their offense can put a tricked out meth addict to sleep though. They have added Willis McGahee, but I always think he is one step away from a torn something. Steve McNair will play smart, but this team will be in a lot of 13-10 games.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
The Steelers were 2-6 at the halfway point last year, but reversed that trend and ended up 8-8. The reasons were a Super Bowl hangover, and the fact that Big Ben wasn’t himself until the 9th or 10th game. Willie Parker is a game-breaker and Big Ben and a very good D will have the team from the Steel City back in playoff contention.
3. Cincinnati Bengals 9-7
One of the best divisions in football is the reason I have Cincy 3rd. They have one of the top 3 offenses in the league, with fantasy wet dreams Carson Palmer, Rudi Johnson, and Chad Johnson. Watch for a breakout year from former UCLA star Tab Perry who is filling in for the suspended (8 games) Chris Henry. They will be on the cusp of the playoffs like last year, but their D will let them down again.
4. Cleveland Browns 2-14
This is the worst team in the NFL. The worst part is that to get Brady Quinn they had to give up next year’s 1st round pick to Dallas. Fast forward to April 2008 in NYC, and you will hear from the commish, “with the 1st pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, the Dallas Cowboys select Brian Brohm, Louisville.” Please see Dallas prediction as to why a QB will be necessary in Big D.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts 12-4
The most explosive team in football. They will put up pinball points, but will their D stand the test of time. I don’t think so.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 8-8
This team is so talented and productive on D, and so talented and (insert expletive) frustrating on offense. Do we love Byron Leftwich or do we not? Obviously not. Pick a QB and roll Jack Del Rio. David Garrard better be ready.
3. Tennessee Titans 8-8
Since Pacman Jones can’t make it rain on the sidelines, then the only reason to watch this team is VY. He will put up big stats, and throw some scares into teams like Indy, but this team needs some other playmakers before they are a legit factor.
4. Houston Texans 4-12
Have fun with that franchise Matt Schaub!
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers 12-4
This team is waiting for the playoffs. Last year, everything was set for them. I think they needed to upgrade at WR besides drafting Buster Davis. They will be there in the end though.
2. Denver Broncos 10-6
One of the most talented teams in the league. Champ Bailey and Dre Bly are the best CB duo in the business. Travis Henry will have more TD’s than children (although who knows how far into the double digits he will be with that by January). A dangerous Wild Card team!
3. Oakland Raiders 6-10
They are finally not the worst team in the division. With a very good defense, it will be up to Daunte to light Al Davis’ Inferno.
4. Kansas City Chiefs 3-13
I am a University of Washington alum, but even I couldn’t get excited about Damon Huard as my QB! Get those ice bags ready for LJ!
AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Weekend
Indy over Jets
Denver wins @ Ravens
Divisional Round
SD over Indy
NE over Denver
AFC Championship
SD goes to Gillette Stadium and goes to Super Bowl
NFC
NFC East
- Philadelphia Eagles 9-7
This division is a mess, but the Eagles are still its best franchise. I think McNabb will stay healthy most of the year, and they will make the playoffs and lose early with their horrible run stopping.
- NY Giants 8-8
Last year, they may have been the most dysfunctional playoff team ever. I think the NFC should eliminate the Wild Cards and just let the 4 division winners in the playoffs. If Brandon Jacobs has a big year, then Big Blue could scrape their way back into the playoffs. If they get there, Eli will make sure they don’t stay long!
- Dallas Cowboys 8-8
I hope Tony Romo is enjoying the end of his 15 minutes of fame. Their very good defense will go to waste, as this talented team will implode at some point of the year. Isn’t it time for TO to complain about something soon?
- Washington Redskins 6-10
If Jason Campbell is healthy this team could win 6 games. If Jason Campbell isn’t they might win 4.
NFC North
- Chicago Bears 12-4
The Bears would win the worst division in football, if they allowed Lindsay Lohan to play QB. Is there really anything different between Lohan and Sexy Rexy anyway? Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs will lead this team to the precipice of the Super Bowl again, and then choke Grossman and Lovie Smith (why is Grossman still the starter) when they lose in January.
- Detroit Lions 8-8
This is not a misprint. I really like this team. Calvin Johnson will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. John Kitna gets close to his prediction, but no cigar! The Motor City rejoices due to a .500 season, and the Ford Family gives Matt Millen a lifetime contract.
- Green Bay Packers 8-8
Come watch Brett Favre sling the ball around to Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. There is nothing else to watch, but Lambeau will be packed and the Packers will be mediocre.
- Minnesota Vikings 7-9
The Vikings are by far the best last place team in the NFL. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor may be the best 1-2 RB duo in the league. Their defense is very solid. The reason for a losing season: Michael Jackson would have a better chance to moonwalk his way to the playoffs as the QB in Prince’s hometown than the man with his same surname who currently holds the position.
NFC South
- New Orleans Saints 11-5
I love Bush (not the President)! I also like to drop a Deuce! It will be Mardi Gras all year long in the Crescent City.
- Carolina Panthers 8-8
Another mediocre NFC team that will be in the Wild Card hunt. Julius Peppers spices this team up a bit, but when Jake Delhomme comes, Panther fans will want to go home. Get your right arm ready David Carr!
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-10
The only thing entertaining at Bucs games this year will be gawking at Jeff Garcia’s new wife at Raymond James Stadium.
- Atlanta Falcons 4-12
Joey Harrington is your starting QB! Vick will be a fantasy dream for his Federal Penitentiary team and for his bunkmate!
NFC West
- Seattle Seahawks 10-6
Experience over youth. ‘Hawks over Niners and Cardinals.
- San Francisco 49ers 8-8
Another of the muddled 8-8 teams in the NFC. Alex Smith will progress, but not enough. If Frank Gore gets hurt (which he is prone to do) this team wins 5 or 6 games. Patrick Willis wins NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.
3. Arizona Cardinals 8-8
I know why Archie Manning wants Matt Leinert as a son. Who wouldn’t when you had Peyton, Eli, and Cooper? I think the Giants should let Cooper play a couple of games. There would be no difference. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are my favorite WR duo. This team will win a Super Bowl in the next 5 years!
4. St. Louis Rams 6-10
Marc gives fantasy players a Bulger in his pants every week, as does Steven Jackson. No D and a banged up Torry Holt means last in a pretty even division.
NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Weekend
Seahawks over Giants
49ers over Eagles @ Philly
Divisional Playoffs
Bears over Niners
Saints over Seahawks
NFC Championship
Game tied at 17-17 in OT. Rex throws a pick six and is stoned by Bears fans!
Super Bowl
Drew Brees plays against his former team and Reggie Bush goes against his hometown team. Reggie scores 3 TD’s, but LT gets 4. In a shootout, Chargers 43-Saints 33.
Gang Green 2007, First Up is Playboy and the Pats September 6, 2007
Posted by Neil in : Uncategorized , add a commentI would like to thank Shawn McCollough of Fantasy Insights for allowing Paul and I to post our weekly fantasy colunms.
What a start to the 2007 campaign for Gang Green. As they look to repeat a 10-6 season and trip to the postseason, they face their arch-nemesis the New England Patriots in a juicy Week 1 matchup in Jersey. The Patriots and Jets split their two regular season meetings last season with each team winning on the road. This game will be a huge test for the Jets D going against playboy Tom Brady and his new stable of WR’s that include Randy Moss. Meanwhile, Chad Pennington will look to get off to a good start after a shaky preseason. If the Jets hope to hang around with the Pats in the AFC East race, they absolutely need to hold serve on home court in Week 1. PREDICTION: While the Pats may eventually win the division, the Jets get off to a great start in 2007 with a 27-24 win at home over Bill Belicheck’s squad.
Chad Pennington doesn’t look good when you put him next to the Playboy Tom Brady. However, like his counterpart, Pennington is a winner. He might not have had a good preseason, but when the lights come on to open the regular season he will be effective. This will be a fairly high-scoring game as Pennington will have to use all his weapons to keep the Jets in this shootout. PREDICTION: Pennignton leads the Jets to victory with 250 yards and 2 TD’s.
Thomas Jones hasn’t been able to show what he can do yet during an embattled injury-plagued preseason. He seems like he will be ready to go this Sunday, and I expect him to play and play well. The Patriots will be keyed on him and he may not have one of his biggest games of the year. However, the Jets will want to establish the run early in their first game of the season against their most bitter rival. Meanwhile, Leon Washington could be absolutely crucial in this game. He may have to take some extra carries off Jones hands in the 2nd half, and Leon is always a threat to take a screen pass the distance. PREDICTIONS: Jones runs for 85 yards and a TD. Leon Washington runs for 60 yards and catches 3 balls for 50 yards.
Coles and Cotchery have become one of the best, although unheralded starting WR duos in the AFC. With teams worried solely about Coles last year, Jerricho stepped up and became a legitimate #2 WR. This will allow for Coles to get a lot of action in 2007, now that teams have to worry about Cotchery. Justin McCareins should also have a fairly big game as the Jets will need to sling the ball around to stay in this divison battle. PREDICTIONS: Coles has 8 catches for 85 yards. Cotchery starts his season off right with 7 catches for 80 yards and a TD. McCareins catches 5 balls for 55 yards, and Brad Smith catches a ball or two and gains 20 yards on a reverse run.
Chris Baker emerged as a legitimate pass catcher last year. His role will be even more important with the emergence of the WR play for the Jets this season. Baker is not a great fantasy TE, but he is good for a TD every three or four weeks. PREDICTIONS: Chris Baker doesn’t get his 1st TD of the season this week, and catches 3 balls for 33 yards.
Mike Nugent was flat out awesome last year. There is absolutely no reason that he won’t continue to be, despite the usually windy conditions of the Meadowlands. I drafted Nugent in my draft and am happy to be putting him out there every week. He will be good for 2 FG’s of medium distance and 3 PAT’s on Sunday in what should be an offensive affair.
This is not the week to play the Jets defense. They are normally a middle of the road defense, but I wouldn’t even consider playing them this week against the efficient Pats and their multitude of options. Justin Miller will have 3 TD’s this season off kickoff returns, and I think this could be the week for one as the Jets will need a spark from their special teams playmaker.
